Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Eisert, Brandon

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.4% K%
Range
16.3% to 27.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
54
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
49
Arsenal5 metrics
23
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.44
ERA current pace5.52
ERA rolling p504.93
Observed weight46%
ERA
3.42 4.13 4.93 5.73 6.45
FIP
3.18 3.72 4.33 4.93 5.47
K%
20.3% 22.0% 23.9% 25.8% 27.4%
BB%
5.4% 6.4% 7.5% 8.7% 9.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.40
36
ERA5.52
17
BB%7.4%
72
K%25.7%
75
xwOBA allowed0.299
69
Barrel allowed7.5%
49 +15 vs proj
Fastball velo89.8
3
Hard-hit allowed40.3%
36
Whiff%28.0%
87
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+93
10
Fastball Stuff+100
36
Mithrandir Stuff+98
21
Sinker Stuff+96
14
Slider Stuff+100
35
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Eisert, Brandon · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.299 2026-09-13: 0.2822026-09-14: 0.2822026-09-18: 0.2852026-09-19: 0.2852026-09-20: 0.2852026-09-21: 0.2862026-09-22: 0.2862026-09-23: 0.2862026-09-24: 0.2872026-09-25: 0.2872026-09-26: 0.2992026-09-27: 0.299 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Eisert, Brandon · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Eisert, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 38.7%Slider: 34.3%Changeup: 19.6%Sinker: 7.0%Sweeper: 0.4% FF39% · 90 mphprimary pitch FF 39%SL 34%CH 20%SI 7%ST 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Eisert, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 39% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 90.0 mphFF90 mphSlider: 34% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 83.9 mphSL84 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 84.8 mphCH85 mphSinker: 7% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 89.1 mphSI89 mphSweeper: 0% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 78.9 mphST79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.9% 171 100 limited sample
SL 28.3% 108 100 limited sample
CH 19.2% 73 93 limited sample
SI 7.6% 29 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.282 vs 0.307 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 36%, 4-Seam Fastball 32%, Changeup 29%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.30
K% Δ+0.024
Sample45.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.5----
Batters Faced285----
K%23.4%16.3% to 27.5%+/- 5.6%
BB%8.2%5.3% to 12.0%+/- 3.4%
Whiff%28.6%22.9% to 34.2%+/- 5.7%
HR/91.410.72 to 2.43+/- 0.86
xwOBA Against0.3040.259 to 0.350+/- 0.045
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.0% to 13.6%+/- 4.3%
ERA4.222.11 to 6.38+/- 2.14
FIP4.112.80 to 6.03+/- 1.62
WHIP1.3601.133 to 1.832+/- 0.349
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

169 career BF

xwOBA0.282
K%20.3%
BB%6.6%
Barrel10.1%
vs RHH

201 career BF

xwOBA0.307
K%20.0%
BB%9.1%
Barrel10.9%