Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Imanaga, Shota

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.9% K%
Range
17.8% to 27.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Volatile contact Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
75
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
61
Arsenal5 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.84
ERA current pace3.74
ERA rolling p503.76
Observed weight76%
ERA
2.74 3.23 3.76 4.30 4.79
FIP
3.86 4.10 4.35 4.61 4.85
K%
21.9% 22.8% 23.8% 24.8% 25.7%
BB%
4.3% 4.7% 5.2% 5.7% 6.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.11
86
ERA3.74
61
BB%5.4%
93
K%24.7%
69 +26 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.301
66 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.8%
16
Fastball velo91.4
10
Hard-hit allowed37.5%
57
Whiff%28.7%
89 +39 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+105
71
Mithrandir Stuff+104
69
Slider Stuff+103
57
Curveball Stuff+103
56
Sinker Stuff+96
15
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Imanaga, Shota · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.301 2026-09-13: 0.3032026-09-14: 0.3032026-09-18: 0.3012026-09-19: 0.3012026-09-20: 0.3012026-09-21: 0.3012026-09-22: 0.3012026-09-23: 0.3012026-09-24: 0.3012026-09-25: 0.3012026-09-26: 0.3012026-09-27: 0.301 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Imanaga, Shota · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Imanaga, Shota · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 40.1%Split-Finger: 34.5%Sweeper: 14.5%Sinker: 6.1%Curveball: 2.9%Slider: 1.9% FF40% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 40%FS 34%ST 15%SI 6%CU 3%SL 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Imanaga, Shota · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 40% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 91.6 mphFF92 mphSplit-Finger: 34% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 82.8 mphFS83 mphSweeper: 15% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 81.1 mphST81 mphSinker: 6% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.2 mphSI90 mphCurveball: 3% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 63″ drop, 74.5 mphCU74 mphSlider: 2% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 86.3 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 63.8% 804 105 qualified
SL 24.5% 309 103 qualified
SI 7.8% 98 96 limited sample
CB 4.0% 50 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.263 vs 0.286 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 49%, Split-Finger 31%, Sweeper 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.13
K% Δ+0.038
Sample181.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings75.6----
Batters Faced307----
K%20.9%17.8% to 27.0%+/- 4.6%
BB%5.3%2.8% to 7.1%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%22.6%19.5% to 27.7%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.551.02 to 2.37+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.3160.276 to 0.348+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed8.8%5.9% to 12.9%+/- 3.5%
ERA3.872.49 to 5.07+/- 1.29
FIP4.293.28 to 4.52+/- 0.62
WHIP1.1620.843 to 1.460+/- 0.309
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

312 career BF

xwOBA0.263
K%22.7%
BB%4.3%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHH

1001 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%20.4%
BB%3.9%
Barrel10.3%