Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Mederos, Victor

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.9% K%
Range
11.5% to 27.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Volatile contact Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
64
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
70
Arsenal6 metrics
27
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason4.43
ERA current pace3.62
ERA rolling p504.12
Observed weight38%
ERA
2.42 3.23 4.12 5.02 5.83
FIP
2.36 3.07 3.86 4.65 5.36
K%
15.3% 17.8% 20.4% 23.1% 25.6%
BB%
7.1% 8.5% 9.9% 11.4% 12.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.19
74
ERA3.62
66
BB%9.5%
44
K%23.0%
57
xwOBA allowed0.289
77 +46 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.1%
98 +66 vs proj
Fastball velo97.0
87
Hard-hit allowed38.5%
49
Whiff%26.5%
79 +22 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-29
Changeup Stuff+80
1
Cutter Stuff+99
27
Fastball Stuff+100
33
Mithrandir Stuff+100
28
Sinker Stuff+102
46
Slider Stuff+99
26
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mederos, Victor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.289 2026-09-18: 0.3032026-09-19: 0.3032026-09-20: 0.3032026-09-21: 0.2932026-09-22: 0.2932026-09-23: 0.2932026-09-24: 0.2942026-09-25: 0.2942026-09-26: 0.2942026-09-27: 0.2892026-09-28: 0.2892026-09-29: 0.289 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Mederos, Victor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 100%100%Chase: ----Whiff: 0%0%Zone contact: 100%100%Contact: 100%100%Hard hit: 100%100% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mederos, Victor · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 46.4%4-Seam Fastball: 23.5%Sinker: 13.0%Split-Finger: 12.8%Sweeper: 3.9%Slider: 0.3% FC46% · 92 mphprimary pitch FC 46%FF 24%SI 13%FS 13%ST 4%SL 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mederos, Victor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Cutter: 46% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.9 mphFC92 mph4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 97.3 mphFF97 mphSinker: 13% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 96.3 mphSI96 mphSplit-Finger: 13% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 92.1 mphFS92 mphSweeper: 4% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 83.5 mphST84 mphSlider: 0% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.0 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 48.3% 129 99 limited sample
FB 22.5% 60 100 limited sample
SI 17.6% 47 102 limited sample
CH 6.0% 16 80 limited sample
SL 5.6% 15 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 49%, Slider 26%, Sweeper 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.26
K% Δ+0.000
Sample34.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings57.3----
Batters Faced274----
K%22.9%11.5% to 27.2%+/- 7.8%
BB%10.4%6.3% to 14.7%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%23.4%14.3% to 25.9%+/- 5.8%
HR/91.490.53 to 2.12+/- 0.80
xwOBA Against0.3290.230 to 0.379+/- 0.075
Barrel% Allowed8.6%5.0% to 11.3%+/- 3.2%
ERA4.882.43 to 7.13+/- 2.35
FIP4.352.80 to 6.93+/- 2.06
WHIP1.3631.076 to 1.737+/- 0.330
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

71 career BF

xwOBA0.265
K%13.5%
BB%12.7%
Barrel7.8%
vs RHH

64 career BF

xwOBA0.246
K%14.6%
BB%9.0%
Barrel6.6%