Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Williamson, Brandon

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.8% K%
Range
16.8% to 26.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
19
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
26
Arsenal7 metrics
41
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason4.07
ERA current pace4.89
ERA rolling p504.50
Observed weight53%
ERA
3.36 3.90 4.50 5.10 5.64
FIP
4.09 4.50 4.97 5.43 5.85
K%
15.8% 17.2% 18.7% 20.2% 21.5%
BB%
8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.41
35
ERA4.89
28
BB%12.0%
19 -53 vs proj
K%15.7%
10 -30 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.369
6 -24 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.5%
34
Fastball velo93.1
28
Hard-hit allowed39.2%
45
Whiff%20.7%
32 -16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-29
Cutter Stuff+101
48
Mithrandir Stuff+100
30
Changeup Stuff+102
52
Curveball Stuff+104
76
Fastball Stuff+95
10
Sinker Stuff+101
39
Slider Stuff+100
32
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Williamson, Brandon · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.369 2026-09-18: 0.3772026-09-19: 0.3782026-09-20: 0.3782026-09-21: 0.3782026-09-22: 0.3782026-09-23: 0.3662026-09-24: 0.3662026-09-25: 0.3662026-09-26: 0.3652026-09-27: 0.3652026-09-28: 0.3692026-09-29: 0.369 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Williamson, Brandon · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Williamson, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 32.7%Changeup: 21.0%4-Seam Fastball: 16.6%Sweeper: 11.4%Sinker: 9.4%Curveball: 9.0% FC33% · 90 mphprimary pitch FC 33%CH 21%FF 17%ST 11%SI 9%CU 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Williamson, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 33% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.7 mphFC90 mphChangeup: 21% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 85.5 mphCH86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 17% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 92.9 mphFF93 mphSweeper: 11% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 81.8 mphST82 mphSinker: 9% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 93.4 mphSI93 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 75.4 mphCU75 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 33.1% 300 101 qualified
CH 20.8% 189 102 limited sample
FB 18.2% 165 95 limited sample
SL 10.7% 97 100 limited sample
CB 8.8% 80 104 limited sample
SI 8.4% 76 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.53
K% Δ-0.050
Sample61.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.0----
Batters Faced295----
K%20.8%16.8% to 26.9%+/- 5.1%
BB%7.4%5.2% to 11.2%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%22.4%17.4% to 25.4%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.760.99 to 2.20+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3310.267 to 0.340+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed8.3%4.9% to 10.5%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.362.61 to 5.82+/- 1.61
FIP4.463.28 to 5.77+/- 1.25
WHIP1.3911.045 to 1.586+/- 0.271
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

123 career BF

xwOBA0.259
K%19.5%
BB%6.4%
Barrel5.7%
vs RHH

500 career BF

xwOBA0.273
K%18.3%
BB%6.7%
Barrel6.9%