Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Anderson, Grant

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.1% K%
Range
17.7% to 31.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Balanced reliever Age 29 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
62
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal5 metrics
52
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.76
ERA current pace3.36
ERA rolling p503.56
Observed weight51%
ERA
1.92 2.70 3.56 4.42 5.19
FIP
2.96 3.67 4.45 5.24 5.95
K%
18.8% 20.7% 22.7% 24.7% 26.5%
BB%
7.9% 9.0% 10.3% 11.5% 12.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.16
79
ERA3.36
73
BB%10.8%
27 -17 vs proj
K%20.9%
43 -28 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.275
86 +30 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.1%
56
Fastball velo93.3
29
Hard-hit allowed35.7%
71
Whiff%22.7%
51 -26 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+105
69
Mithrandir Stuff+104
70
Slider Stuff+102
48
Changeup Stuff+95
14
Sinker Stuff+103
58
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Anderson, Grant · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.275 2026-09-13: 0.2752026-09-14: 0.2752026-09-18: 0.2752026-09-19: 0.2752026-09-20: 0.2752026-09-21: 0.2752026-09-22: 0.2752026-09-23: 0.2752026-09-24: 0.2752026-09-25: 0.2752026-09-26: 0.2752026-09-27: 0.275 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Anderson, Grant · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Anderson, Grant · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 37.0%4-Seam Fastball: 35.7%Sinker: 23.9%Changeup: 3.4% ST37% · 81 mphprimary pitch ST 37%FF 36%SI 24%CH 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Anderson, Grant · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 37% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 81.1 mphST81 mph4-Seam Fastball: 36% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 93.4 mphFF93 mphSinker: 24% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 93.0 mphSI93 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 86.2 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 36.9% 226 105 qualified
SL 36.7% 225 102 qualified
SI 22.7% 139 103 limited sample
CH 3.8% 23 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.309 vs 0.283 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 38%, 4-Seam Fastball 33%, Sinker 25%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.38
K% Δ-0.042
Sample60.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings37.1----
Batters Faced162----
K%25.1%17.7% to 31.7%+/- 7.0%
BB%9.4%6.5% to 14.6%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%26.3%21.1% to 32.9%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.290.53 to 2.57+/- 1.02
xwOBA Against0.3080.256 to 0.362+/- 0.053
Barrel% Allowed7.4%3.9% to 10.9%+/- 3.5%
ERA3.741.75 to 6.38+/- 2.31
FIP4.092.71 to 6.94+/- 2.12
WHIP1.2621.047 to 1.706+/- 0.330
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

221 career BF

xwOBA0.309
K%22.0%
BB%12.1%
Barrel7.7%
vs RHH

390 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%22.1%
BB%8.0%
Barrel6.3%