Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Sisk, Evan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
26.3% K%
Range
16.8% to 31.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 29 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
53
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
59
Arsenal6 metrics
9
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.60
ERA current pace3.07
ERA rolling p503.36
Observed weight45%
ERA
1.56 2.41 3.36 4.31 5.16
FIP
2.19 2.83 3.54 4.26 4.90
K%
19.6% 21.7% 24.0% 26.3% 28.4%
BB%
8.0% 9.4% 11.1% 12.7% 14.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.44
30
ERA3.07
81
BB%12.6%
14
K%25.3%
72
xwOBA allowed0.299
69
Barrel allowed3.5%
96 +44 vs proj
Fastball velo91.3
9
Hard-hit allowed31.0%
94
Whiff%24.8%
66
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Mithrandir Stuff+93
9
Changeup Stuff+93
10
Curveball Stuff+100
22
Fastball Stuff+91
4
Sinker Stuff+91
5
Slider Stuff+92
5
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sisk, Evan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.299 2026-09-13: 0.2942026-09-14: 0.2942026-09-18: 0.2942026-09-19: 0.2942026-09-20: 0.2942026-09-21: 0.2942026-09-22: 0.2942026-09-23: 0.2942026-09-24: 0.2942026-09-25: 0.2942026-09-26: 0.2962026-09-27: 0.299 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sisk, Evan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 31%31% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sisk, Evan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 30.7%Curveball: 26.5%4-Seam Fastball: 17.3%Sweeper: 16.6%Changeup: 8.9% SI31% · 91 mphprimary pitch SI 31%CU 27%FF 17%ST 17%CH 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sisk, Evan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 31% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 91.1 mphSI91 mphCurveball: 27% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 77.6 mphCU78 mph4-Seam Fastball: 17% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 91.5 mphFF92 mphSweeper: 17% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 80.3 mphST80 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 83.6 mphCH84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 32.6% 182 91 limited sample
CB 25.2% 141 100 limited sample
SL 16.8% 94 92 limited sample
FB 15.9% 89 91 limited sample
CH 9.5% 53 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 31%, Sweeper 27%, 4-Seam Fastball 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.62
K% Δ-0.010
Sample42.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings28.9----
Batters Faced130----
K%26.3%16.8% to 31.6%+/- 7.4%
BB%11.0%4.9% to 15.2%+/- 5.1%
Whiff%26.4%18.3% to 33.2%+/- 7.5%
HR/91.020.00 to 1.52+/- 0.76
xwOBA Against0.3020.135 to 0.355+/- 0.110
Barrel% Allowed7.3%2.3% to 10.5%+/- 4.1%
ERA3.690.91 to 5.98+/- 2.54
FIP3.591.42 to 5.24+/- 1.91
WHIP1.3710.934 to 1.735+/- 0.400
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

45 career BF

xwOBA0.159
K%22.0%
BB%8.9%
Barrel3.7%
vs RHH

59 career BF

xwOBA0.177
K%19.0%
BB%8.4%
Barrel5.0%