Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026

Varland, Gus

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.6% K%
Range
16.0% to 29.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team WSH Archetype Volatile contact Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
23
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
22
Arsenal3 metrics
80
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.07
ERA current pace6.54
ERA rolling p505.09
Observed weight41%
ERA
3.21 4.10 5.09 6.08 6.97
FIP
3.30 3.72 4.19 4.66 5.09
K%
18.6% 20.7% 22.9% 25.2% 27.3%
BB%
5.9% 7.2% 8.6% 9.9% 11.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.62
11
ERA6.54
5
BB%8.9%
50
K%21.9%
48 -20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.392
1 -61 vs proj
Barrel allowed15.5%
1 -39 vs proj
Fastball velo95.1
61
Hard-hit allowed50.0%
1
Whiff%19.0%
20 -40 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+107
84
Mithrandir Stuff+106
87
Slider Stuff+104
69
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 57%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Varland, Gus · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.392 2026-09-13: 0.4002026-09-14: 0.4002026-09-18: 0.4002026-09-19: 0.4002026-09-20: 0.4002026-09-21: 0.4002026-09-22: 0.4002026-09-23: 0.4002026-09-24: 0.4002026-09-25: 0.4002026-09-26: 0.3922026-09-27: 0.392 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Varland, Gus · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 50%50% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Varland, Gus · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 57.4%Slider: 39.4%Changeup: 3.2% FF57% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 57%SL 39%CH 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Varland, Gus · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 57% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 95.1 mphFF95 mphSlider: 39% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.6 mphSL88 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 91.0 mphCH91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 53.5% 197 107 limited sample
SL 44.3% 163 104 limited sample
CH 2.2% 8 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 46%, Slider 37%, Changeup 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.23
K% Δ-0.027
Sample37.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings29.8----
Batters Faced136----
K%24.6%16.0% to 29.5%+/- 6.8%
BB%8.5%4.7% to 12.6%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%24.0%18.0% to 30.7%+/- 6.4%
HR/91.320.37 to 2.12+/- 0.88
xwOBA Against0.3030.196 to 0.352+/- 0.078
Barrel% Allowed8.0%4.0% to 12.4%+/- 4.2%
ERA4.311.56 to 6.79+/- 2.62
FIP3.752.41 to 4.90+/- 1.24
WHIP1.3241.016 to 1.683+/- 0.333
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

99 career BF

xwOBA0.219
K%18.8%
BB%7.7%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHH

162 career BF

xwOBA0.210
K%19.6%
BB%5.8%
Barrel7.4%