Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Scott, Christian

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
20.9% K%
Range
14.1% to 26.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 27 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
63
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
65
Arsenal6 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.08
ERA current pace3.85
ERA rolling p503.92
Observed weight67%
ERA
2.74 3.30 3.92 4.55 5.11
FIP
2.87 3.17 3.51 3.85 4.15
K%
22.4% 23.6% 25.0% 26.4% 27.6%
BB%
6.9% 7.6% 8.3% 9.1% 9.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.30
56
ERA3.85
58
BB%9.6%
42 -45 vs proj
K%28.3%
87 +45 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.297
71 +29 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.8%
61 +39 vs proj
Fastball velo95.4
66
Hard-hit allowed34.4%
80
Whiff%25.0%
67 +24 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+106
79
Mithrandir Stuff+105
75
Slider Stuff+103
62
Curveball Stuff+101
35
Cutter Stuff+101
46
Sinker Stuff+93
8
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 47%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Scott, Christian · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.297 2026-09-13: 0.3032026-09-14: 0.2972026-09-18: 0.2972026-09-19: 0.2972026-09-20: 0.2972026-09-21: 0.2972026-09-22: 0.2972026-09-23: 0.2972026-09-24: 0.2972026-09-25: 0.2972026-09-26: 0.2972026-09-27: 0.297 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Scott, Christian · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Scott, Christian · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 46.8%Sweeper: 22.5%Cutter: 19.0%Split-Finger: 5.1%Curveball: 5.0%Sinker: 1.6% FF47% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 47%ST 22%FC 19%FS 5%CU 5%SI 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Scott, Christian · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 47% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.5 mphFF96 mphSweeper: 22% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 81.4 mphST81 mphCutter: 19% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 89.6 mphFC90 mphSplit-Finger: 5% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 84.7 mphFS85 mphCurveball: 5% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 81.9 mphCU82 mphSinker: 2% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.2 mphSI92 mphSlider: 0% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 82.4 mphSL82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.6% 451 106 qualified
SL 23.8% 212 103 qualified
FC 21.1% 188 101 limited sample
CB 2.6% 23 101 limited sample
SI 2.0% 18 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projection leans on stable run prevention more than one extreme carrying pitch trait.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.63
K% Δ+0.074
Sample111.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings140.5----
Batters Faced595----
K%20.9%14.1% to 26.0%+/- 5.9%
BB%6.2%2.7% to 8.0%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%21.6%14.3% to 23.9%+/- 4.8%
HR/91.670.77 to 2.10+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.3190.226 to 0.351+/- 0.063
Barrel% Allowed9.2%5.2% to 11.6%+/- 3.2%
ERA4.482.10 to 5.28+/- 1.59
FIP4.412.59 to 4.31+/- 0.86
WHIP1.1910.702 to 1.518+/- 0.408
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

103 career BF

xwOBA0.215
K%14.0%
BB%3.9%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

108 career BF

xwOBA0.196
K%15.2%
BB%3.3%
Barrel6.8%