Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 28 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Vodnik, Victor

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.8% K%
Range
17.1% to 31.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
24
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
44
Arsenal6 metrics
46
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-28
ERA preseason3.63
ERA current pace4.99
ERA rolling p504.36
Observed weight53%
ERA
2.61 3.44 4.36 5.28 6.10
FIP
2.60 3.22 3.91 4.60 5.22
K%
16.3% 18.0% 19.9% 21.8% 23.5%
BB%
9.1% 10.4% 11.8% 13.2% 14.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.57
15
ERA4.99
26
BB%12.7%
13 -19 vs proj
K%17.4%
16 -40 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.312
50
Barrel allowed4.3%
92 +45 vs proj
Fastball velo98.6
97
Hard-hit allowed40.1%
38
Whiff%22.5%
49
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-28
Fastball Stuff+99
29
Mithrandir Stuff+101
35
Slider Stuff+102
55
Changeup Stuff+101
42
Cutter Stuff+114
100
Sinker Stuff+95
13
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Vodnik, Victor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.312 2026-09-14: 0.3222026-09-18: 0.3212026-09-19: 0.3212026-09-20: 0.3212026-09-21: 0.3192026-09-22: 0.3192026-09-23: 0.3172026-09-24: 0.3172026-09-25: 0.3172026-09-26: 0.3152026-09-27: 0.3132026-09-28: 0.312 2026-09-14 2026-09-28 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Vodnik, Victor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Vodnik, Victor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 45.0%Slider: 27.8%Changeup: 15.5%Slurve: 6.6%Sinker: 3.6%Cutter: 1.5% FF45% · 99 mphprimary pitch FF 45%SL 28%CH 15%SV 7%SI 4%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Vodnik, Victor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 45% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 98.6 mphFF99 mphSlider: 28% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 89.0 mphSL89 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 92.2 mphCH92 mphSlurve: 7% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 87.4 mphSV87 mphSinker: 4% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 98.7 mphSI99 mphCutter: 1% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 92.6 mphFC93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.1% 290 99 qualified
SL 34.2% 225 102 qualified
CH 15.3% 101 101 limited sample
SI 4.7% 31 95 limited sample
FC 1.7% 11 114 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.327 vs 0.295 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 56%, Changeup 26%, Slider 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.05
K% Δ-0.054
Sample60.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings37.5----
Batters Faced166----
K%22.8%17.1% to 31.0%+/- 7.0%
BB%10.4%5.6% to 15.4%+/- 4.9%
Whiff%23.9%18.1% to 30.7%+/- 6.3%
HR/90.990.32 to 1.80+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3100.238 to 0.366+/- 0.064
Barrel% Allowed7.6%3.7% to 12.0%+/- 4.2%
ERA3.941.13 to 6.06+/- 2.47
FIP4.202.53 to 6.23+/- 1.85
WHIP1.3241.028 to 1.743+/- 0.358
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

290 career BF

xwOBA0.327
K%18.2%
BB%13.5%
Barrel7.9%
vs RHH

341 career BF

xwOBA0.295
K%21.7%
BB%8.4%
Barrel7.3%