Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Perkins, Jack

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.7% K%
Range
18.0% to 29.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Balanced reliever Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
42
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
50
Arsenal6 metrics
70
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.31
ERA current pace5.90
ERA rolling p505.42
Observed weight70%
ERA
4.28 4.82 5.42 6.02 6.56
FIP
3.75 4.12 4.52 4.93 5.30
K%
22.4% 23.5% 24.8% 26.0% 27.1%
BB%
8.0% 8.7% 9.5% 10.2% 10.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.46
27
ERA5.90
12
BB%9.5%
43
K%25.7%
74 +29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.311
51 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.6%
32
Fastball velo95.6
70
Hard-hit allowed36.7%
63
Whiff%26.0%
75 -16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+102
46
Mithrandir Stuff+105
75
Slider Stuff+108
93
Changeup Stuff+105
72
Cutter Stuff+103
70
Sinker Stuff+104
63
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Perkins, Jack · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.311 2026-09-13: 0.3112026-09-14: 0.3112026-09-18: 0.3112026-09-19: 0.3112026-09-20: 0.3112026-09-21: 0.3092026-09-22: 0.3092026-09-23: 0.3092026-09-24: 0.3092026-09-25: 0.3092026-09-26: 0.3092026-09-27: 0.311 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Perkins, Jack · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Perkins, Jack · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 30.2%Sweeper: 27.9%Changeup: 18.7%Cutter: 15.1%Sinker: 5.4%Slider: 2.7% FF30% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 30%ST 28%CH 19%FC 15%SI 5%SL 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Perkins, Jack · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 30% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.8 mphFF96 mphSweeper: 28% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.3 mphST86 mphChangeup: 19% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 89.5 mphCH90 mphCutter: 15% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 92.7 mphFC93 mphSinker: 5% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 94.8 mphSI95 mphSlider: 3% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 85.9 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 31.0% 335 102 qualified
SL 30.8% 333 108 qualified
CH 17.3% 187 105 limited sample
FC 15.9% 172 103 limited sample
SI 5.0% 54 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 42%, Sweeper 33%, Cutter 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.25
K% Δ+0.040
Sample123.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.0----
Batters Faced280----
K%21.7%18.0% to 29.2%+/- 5.6%
BB%9.3%6.9% to 12.9%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%29.2%23.3% to 33.7%+/- 5.2%
HR/91.340.69 to 1.82+/- 0.57
xwOBA Against0.3280.269 to 0.345+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed8.8%5.8% to 12.1%+/- 3.1%
ERA4.653.12 to 6.11+/- 1.49
FIP4.403.21 to 5.24+/- 1.02
WHIP1.3120.948 to 1.582+/- 0.317
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

83 career BF

xwOBA0.248
K%19.5%
BB%9.4%
Barrel8.4%
vs RHH

78 career BF

xwOBA0.243
K%19.5%
BB%8.1%
Barrel8.6%