Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Rocker, Kumar

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.3% K%
Range
16.9% to 27.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
40
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
44
Arsenal6 metrics
23
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.15
ERA current pace4.38
ERA rolling p504.32
Observed weight73%
ERA
3.13 3.70 4.32 4.94 5.50
FIP
3.43 3.78 4.16 4.54 4.88
K%
19.9% 20.8% 21.9% 23.0% 23.9%
BB%
7.8% 8.4% 9.1% 9.8% 10.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.42
33
ERA4.38
41
BB%9.5%
44 -17 vs proj
K%21.7%
46
xwOBA allowed0.324
35
Barrel allowed7.3%
51 +20 vs proj
Fastball velo94.4
51
Hard-hit allowed40.5%
34
Whiff%24.7%
65 +17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Cutter Stuff+97
14
Fastball Stuff+99
29
Mithrandir Stuff+100
28
Sinker Stuff+101
37
Slider Stuff+97
16
Changeup Stuff+96
15
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rocker, Kumar · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.324 2026-09-13: 0.3292026-09-14: 0.3292026-09-18: 0.3292026-09-19: 0.3282026-09-20: 0.3282026-09-21: 0.3282026-09-22: 0.3282026-09-23: 0.3282026-09-24: 0.3282026-09-25: 0.3282026-09-26: 0.3242026-09-27: 0.324 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rocker, Kumar · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rocker, Kumar · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 37.6%Sinker: 29.4%4-Seam Fastball: 14.7%Cutter: 14.2%Changeup: 3.3%Split-Finger: 0.8% SL38% · 83 mphprimary pitch SL 38%SI 29%FF 15%FC 14%CH 3%FS 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rocker, Kumar · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 38% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 83.2 mphSL83 mphSinker: 29% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 94.4 mphSI94 mph4-Seam Fastball: 15% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 94.6 mphFF95 mphCutter: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.3 mphFC90 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 88.8 mphCH89 mphSplit-Finger: 1% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 88.0 mphFS88 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.8 mphPO91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 38.0% 671 97 qualified
SI 32.8% 580 101 qualified
FB 13.9% 245 99 qualified
FC 11.6% 204 97 qualified
CH 3.7% 66 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.299 vs 0.271 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 26%, Cutter 23%, 4-Seam Fastball 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.16
K% Δ+0.004
Sample150.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.7----
Batters Faced304----
K%21.3%16.9% to 27.2%+/- 5.2%
BB%8.1%5.9% to 10.9%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%22.3%19.8% to 27.7%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.390.82 to 2.02+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3150.276 to 0.335+/- 0.030
Barrel% Allowed8.6%5.4% to 12.2%+/- 3.4%
ERA4.243.29 to 6.33+/- 1.52
FIP4.062.92 to 4.77+/- 0.93
WHIP1.3061.077 to 1.621+/- 0.272
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

199 career BF

xwOBA0.299
K%17.7%
BB%8.3%
Barrel9.7%
vs RHH

181 career BF

xwOBA0.271
K%19.7%
BB%6.0%
Barrel8.0%