Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 28 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Hill, Jaden

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.0% K%
Range
15.8% to 30.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Balanced reliever Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
34
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
53
Arsenal5 metrics
40
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-28
ERA preseason3.90
ERA current pace5.35
ERA rolling p504.55
Observed weight45%
ERA
2.86 3.66 4.55 5.44 6.24
FIP
2.75 3.24 3.78 4.32 4.81
K%
17.7% 19.8% 22.2% 24.5% 26.7%
BB%
7.6% 8.9% 10.4% 11.8% 13.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.52
20
ERA5.35
20
BB%12.4%
16 -29 vs proj
K%22.7%
54
xwOBA allowed0.306
60
Barrel allowed4.9%
87 +23 vs proj
Fastball velo97.1
89
Hard-hit allowed38.5%
50
Whiff%27.8%
85 +26 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-28
Mithrandir Stuff+101
37
Changeup Stuff+101
41
Fastball Stuff+100
34
Sinker Stuff+101
38
Slider Stuff+102
50
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hill, Jaden · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.306 2026-09-14: 0.3122026-09-18: 0.3092026-09-19: 0.3112026-09-20: 0.3112026-09-21: 0.3112026-09-22: 0.3112026-09-23: 0.3112026-09-24: 0.3072026-09-25: 0.3072026-09-26: 0.3072026-09-27: 0.3072026-09-28: 0.306 2026-09-14 2026-09-28 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hill, Jaden · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hill, Jaden · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 30.8%Slider: 27.3%Sinker: 21.1%Changeup: 20.7% FF31% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 31%SL 27%SI 21%CH 21% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hill, Jaden · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 31% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 97.0 mphFF97 mphSlider: 27% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 88.2 mphSL88 mphSinker: 21% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 97.4 mphSI97 mphChangeup: 21% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.5 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 31.5% 194 100 limited sample
SL 26.8% 165 102 limited sample
CH 21.6% 133 101 limited sample
SI 20.0% 123 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 29%, Slider 25%, Changeup 24%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.13
K% Δ-0.004
Sample42.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.2----
Batters Faced136----
K%23.0%15.8% to 30.7%+/- 7.5%
BB%9.5%4.9% to 13.5%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%23.9%18.4% to 29.8%+/- 5.7%
HR/91.140.26 to 1.81+/- 0.77
xwOBA Against0.3080.232 to 0.355+/- 0.062
Barrel% Allowed6.6%2.1% to 9.1%+/- 3.5%
ERA4.221.69 to 6.43+/- 2.37
FIP3.702.57 to 5.46+/- 1.45
WHIP1.3540.956 to 1.735+/- 0.389
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

94 career BF

xwOBA0.242
K%18.5%
BB%8.4%
Barrel3.7%
vs RHH

102 career BF

xwOBA0.235
K%19.8%
BB%6.5%
Barrel4.1%