Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Hoffman, Nolan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.0% K%
Range
1.9% to 24.6%
Live Δ
--
Team KC Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
45
Pitching
percentile
Arsenal6 metrics
45
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.58
ERA current pace3.77
ERA rolling p504.41
Observed weight21%
ERA
1.87 3.07 4.41 5.75 6.96
FIP
2.12 3.06 4.10 5.14 6.08
K%
7.5% 11.8% 16.6% 21.4% 25.7%
BB%
3.1% 5.4% 8.0% 10.5% 12.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+77
1
Cutter Stuff+101
48
Fastball Stuff+105
73
Mithrandir Stuff+103
57
Sinker Stuff+104
66
Slider Stuff+98
23
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hoffman, Nolan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hoffman, Nolan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 26.6%4-Seam Fastball: 25.2%Sinker: 24.8%Sweeper: 10.4%Changeup: 8.1%Curveball: 5.0% FC27% · 88 mphprimary pitch FC 27%FF 25%SI 25%ST 10%CH 8%CU 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hoffman, Nolan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 27% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 88.3 mphFC88 mph4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 93.2 mphFF93 mphSinker: 25% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 92.8 mphSI93 mphSweeper: 10% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 80.6 mphST81 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 85.3 mphCH85 mphCurveball: 5% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 78.2 mphCU78 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 27.7% 53 101 limited sample
FB 26.7% 51 105 limited sample
SI 25.1% 48 104 limited sample
SL 10.5% 20 98 limited sample
CH 6.8% 13 77 limited sample
CB 3.1% 6 107 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 54%, Curveball 27%, Changeup 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings27.2----
Batters Faced125----
K%22.0%1.9% to 24.6%+/- 11.4%
BB%9.1%1.1% to 13.2%+/- 6.0%
Whiff%22.7%2.1% to 26.7%+/- 12.3%
HR/91.120.00 to 1.44+/- 0.72
xwOBA Against0.3020.001 to 0.315+/- 0.157
Barrel% Allowed7.5%0.1% to 8.5%+/- 4.2%
ERA4.041.78 to 8.01+/- 3.12
FIP4.000.89 to 5.73+/- 2.42
WHIP1.3920.489 to 1.851+/- 0.681
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

12 career BF

xwOBA0.024
K%4.0%
BB%4.3%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

9 career BF

xwOBA0.024
K%4.2%
BB%3.5%
Barrel0.1%