Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Drohan, Shane

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
20.2% K%
Range
5.3% to 23.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
52
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
51
Arsenal7 metrics
52
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.04
ERA current pace4.24
ERA rolling p503.87
Observed weight69%
ERA
2.29 3.04 3.87 4.70 5.45
FIP
1.93 2.87 3.91 4.95 5.89
K%
18.7% 20.2% 22.0% 23.7% 25.2%
BB%
6.7% 7.5% 8.4% 9.3% 10.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.39
39
ERA4.24
45
BB%8.5%
55
K%23.6%
62 +26 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.304
62 -24 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.6%
31
Fastball velo94.8
56
Hard-hit allowed39.0%
46
Whiff%23.8%
59
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+103
59
Mithrandir Stuff+103
61
Sinker Stuff+104
67
Slider Stuff+103
62
Changeup Stuff+86
2
Curveball Stuff+103
65
Cutter Stuff+101
50
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Drohan, Shane · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.304 2026-09-13: 0.3032026-09-14: 0.3032026-09-18: 0.3032026-09-19: 0.3022026-09-20: 0.3022026-09-21: 0.3022026-09-22: 0.3022026-09-23: 0.3022026-09-24: 0.3022026-09-25: 0.3022026-09-26: 0.3042026-09-27: 0.304 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Drohan, Shane · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Drohan, Shane · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 27.3%Slider: 21.3%Sinker: 20.9%Curveball: 13.0%Cutter: 12.0%Changeup: 5.5% FF27% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 27%SL 21%SI 21%CU 13%FC 12%CH 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Drohan, Shane · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 27% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 94.9 mphFF95 mphSlider: 21% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.4 mphSL86 mphSinker: 21% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 94.8 mphSI95 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 51″ drop, 80.6 mphCU81 mphCutter: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 90.9 mphFC91 mphChangeup: 6% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.8 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 27.5% 388 103 qualified
SL 21.4% 302 103 qualified
SI 20.0% 283 104 qualified
CB 13.2% 186 103 limited sample
FC 13.1% 185 101 limited sample
CH 4.9% 69 86 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.06
K% Δ+0.034
Sample124.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings62.3----
Batters Faced253----
K%20.2%5.3% to 23.8%+/- 9.2%
BB%9.7%1.8% to 10.4%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%22.5%8.1% to 29.9%+/- 10.9%
HR/91.420.05 to 1.58+/- 0.76
xwOBA Against0.2780.055 to 0.306+/- 0.126
Barrel% Allowed8.1%0.6% to 8.4%+/- 3.9%
ERA4.180.28 to 4.45+/- 2.08
FIP4.341.45 to 6.67+/- 2.61
WHIP1.2080.372 to 1.441+/- 0.534
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

5 career BF

xwOBA0.003
K%5.2%
BB%2.3%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

8 career BF

xwOBA0.003
K%4.7%
BB%2.5%
Barrel0.1%