Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Vargas, Carlos

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
18.8% K%
Range
12.3% to 26.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
59
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal4 metrics
66
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.60
ERA current pace5.19
ERA rolling p504.04
Observed weight28%
ERA
2.18 3.06 4.04 5.02 5.90
FIP
2.70 3.23 3.81 4.39 4.91
K%
14.2% 16.8% 19.7% 22.5% 25.1%
BB%
3.7% 5.2% 6.9% 8.6% 10.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.99
94
ERA5.19
23
BB%5.4%
93 +16 vs proj
K%21.5%
45 +16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.320
41
Barrel allowed7.9%
41 -17 vs proj
Fastball velo96.3
79
Hard-hit allowed31.7%
92
Whiff%16.8%
7 -22 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Cutter Stuff+106
89
Mithrandir Stuff+105
74
Sinker Stuff+98
24
Slider Stuff+105
78
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

4 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Vargas, Carlos · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.320 2026-09-24: 0.3242026-09-25: 0.3242026-09-26: 0.3242026-09-27: 0.320 2026-09-24 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Vargas, Carlos · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Vargas, Carlos · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 48.7%Slider: 28.5%Cutter: 22.3%4-Seam Fastball: 0.6% SI49% · 96 mphprimary pitch SI 49%SL 28%FC 22%FF 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Vargas, Carlos · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Sinker: 49% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 96.3 mphSI96 mphSlider: 28% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.6 mphSL89 mphCutter: 22% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 93.7 mphFC94 mph4-Seam Fastball: 1% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 97.2 mphFF97 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 46.8% 108 98 limited sample
SL 32.0% 74 105 limited sample
FC 20.3% 47 106 limited sample
CH 0.9% 2 134 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 61%, Slider 18%, Cutter 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.23
K% Δ+0.027
Sample22.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings36.1----
Batters Faced160----
K%18.8%12.3% to 26.9%+/- 7.3%
BB%7.0%3.8% to 12.4%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%20.2%14.5% to 26.8%+/- 6.2%
HR/91.370.52 to 2.49+/- 0.98
xwOBA Against0.3250.243 to 0.365+/- 0.061
Barrel% Allowed6.9%3.0% to 10.4%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.961.61 to 6.42+/- 2.41
FIP4.533.23 to 6.09+/- 1.43
WHIP1.3341.059 to 1.744+/- 0.342
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

185 career BF

xwOBA0.287
K%13.9%
BB%6.7%
Barrel6.0%
vs RHH

247 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%15.0%
BB%6.1%
Barrel5.6%