Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Montero, Keider

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.5% K%
Range
15.4% to 24.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Volatile contact Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
68
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
58
Arsenal6 metrics
67
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.09
ERA current pace3.48
ERA rolling p503.65
Observed weight72%
ERA
2.53 3.06 3.65 4.24 4.77
FIP
3.42 3.78 4.19 4.59 4.95
K%
15.9% 16.8% 17.8% 18.8% 19.7%
BB%
5.2% 5.7% 6.3% 6.8% 7.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.05
90
ERA3.48
70
BB%5.9%
90 +21 vs proj
K%17.1%
15
xwOBA allowed0.290
77 +53 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.2%
55 +19 vs proj
Fastball velo94.4
51
Hard-hit allowed36.5%
65
Whiff%16.5%
6
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+103
54
Curveball Stuff+105
90
Fastball Stuff+105
68
Mithrandir Stuff+104
72
Sinker Stuff+101
36
Slider Stuff+106
83
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Montero, Keider · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.290 2026-09-13: 0.2922026-09-14: 0.2922026-09-18: 0.2942026-09-19: 0.2942026-09-20: 0.2942026-09-21: 0.2942026-09-22: 0.2902026-09-23: 0.2902026-09-24: 0.2902026-09-25: 0.2902026-09-26: 0.2902026-09-27: 0.290 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Montero, Keider · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Montero, Keider · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 30.0%Sinker: 23.0%Slider: 19.6%Knuckle Curve: 13.8%Changeup: 13.6%Unknown: 0.0% FF30% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 30%SI 23%SL 20%KC 14%CH 14%UN 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Montero, Keider · 2026 arsenal snapshot 6″12″18″24″ 4-Seam Fastball: 30% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 1″ drop, 94.3 mphFF94 mphSinker: 23% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 2″ drop, 94.6 mphSI95 mphSlider: 20% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 3″ drop, 86.0 mphSL86 mphKnuckle Curve: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 4″ drop, 80.3 mphKC80 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 2″ drop, 87.0 mphCH87 mphUnknown: 0% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 9″ drop, 51.9 mphUN52 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 32.0% 513 105 qualified
SI 21.4% 344 101 qualified
SL 18.7% 300 106 qualified
CH 14.5% 232 103 qualified
CB 13.4% 215 105 qualified
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.312 vs 0.281 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 31%, Slider 21%, Sinker 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.61
K% Δ-0.014
Sample153.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings71.7----
Batters Faced312----
K%18.5%15.4% to 24.4%+/- 4.5%
BB%7.5%5.3% to 9.7%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%19.0%16.9% to 23.3%+/- 3.2%
HR/91.561.15 to 2.30+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.3380.282 to 0.353+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.6% to 11.1%+/- 2.7%
ERA5.093.22 to 6.12+/- 1.45
FIP4.713.59 to 5.56+/- 0.99
WHIP1.3641.086 to 1.642+/- 0.278
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

438 career BF

xwOBA0.312
K%16.2%
BB%8.0%
Barrel8.2%
vs RHH

429 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%19.0%
BB%5.4%
Barrel7.2%