Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Pérez, Cionel

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.8% K%
Range
15.1% to 29.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Volatile contact Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
38
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
36
Arsenal5 metrics
53
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.98
ERA current pace4.87
ERA rolling p504.39
Observed weight46%
ERA
2.38 3.33 4.39 5.45 6.40
FIP
2.96 3.54 4.18 4.82 5.40
K%
18.2% 20.2% 22.5% 24.7% 26.8%
BB%
7.1% 8.6% 10.2% 11.7% 13.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.40
35
ERA4.87
29
BB%8.9%
50 +17 vs proj
K%23.2%
59
xwOBA allowed0.346
17 -49 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.7%
5 -79 vs proj
Fastball velo96.6
82
Hard-hit allowed48.9%
2
Whiff%22.1%
47
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Curveball Stuff+104
80
Fastball Stuff+98
22
Mithrandir Stuff+103
59
Sinker Stuff+103
52
Slider Stuff+102
54
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Pérez, Cionel · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.346 2026-09-13: 0.3462026-09-14: 0.3462026-09-18: 0.3462026-09-19: 0.3462026-09-20: 0.3462026-09-21: 0.3482026-09-22: 0.3482026-09-23: 0.3482026-09-24: 0.3462026-09-25: 0.3462026-09-26: 0.3462026-09-27: 0.346 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Pérez, Cionel · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 49%49% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pérez, Cionel · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slurve: 32.7%Sinker: 29.3%4-Seam Fastball: 20.8%Curveball: 17.3% SV33% · 86 mphprimary pitch SV 33%SI 29%FF 21%CU 17% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pérez, Cionel · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slurve: 33% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 85.6 mphSV86 mphSinker: 29% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 96.5 mphSI97 mph4-Seam Fastball: 21% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 96.7 mphFF97 mphCurveball: 17% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 85.5 mphCU86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 29.5% 122 103 limited sample
CB 25.7% 106 104 limited sample
SL 24.7% 102 102 limited sample
FB 20.1% 83 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.253 vs 0.283 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 42%, Slider 23%, Slurve 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.69
K% Δ+0.004
Sample46.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.6----
Batters Faced160----
K%22.8%15.1% to 29.6%+/- 7.3%
BB%10.2%5.8% to 16.0%+/- 5.1%
Whiff%23.1%17.5% to 28.6%+/- 5.5%
HR/90.760.00 to 1.48+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3010.215 to 0.356+/- 0.070
Barrel% Allowed5.2%1.5% to 8.8%+/- 3.7%
ERA4.181.45 to 7.13+/- 2.84
FIP3.851.91 to 5.35+/- 1.72
WHIP1.3161.058 to 1.871+/- 0.406
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

461 career BF

xwOBA0.253
K%19.1%
BB%11.1%
Barrel2.7%
vs RHH

684 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%17.7%
BB%11.4%
Barrel3.8%