Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026

Foley, Jason

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.9% K%
Range
13.8% to 29.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team SF Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
32
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
41
Arsenal4 metrics
61
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason3.36
ERA current pace4.50
ERA rolling p503.74
Observed weight33%
ERA
2.22 2.94 3.74 4.53 5.25
FIP
2.79 3.24 3.74 4.24 4.69
K%
12.6% 15.2% 18.1% 21.0% 23.6%
BB%
5.1% 6.3% 7.6% 9.0% 10.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.50
22
ERA4.50
37
BB%9.4%
45 -34 vs proj
K%12.8%
2 -40 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.309
55
Barrel allowed5.5%
80 +26 vs proj
Fastball velo95.7
72
Hard-hit allowed38.5%
50
Whiff%15.1%
3 -39 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-29
Fastball Stuff+98
22
Mithrandir Stuff+105
78
Sinker Stuff+110
94
Slider Stuff+102
52
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Foley, Jason · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.309 2026-09-18: 0.2942026-09-19: 0.2972026-09-20: 0.2972026-09-21: 0.2972026-09-22: 0.3112026-09-23: 0.3112026-09-24: 0.3112026-09-25: 0.3112026-09-26: 0.3112026-09-27: 0.3102026-09-28: 0.3092026-09-29: 0.309 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Foley, Jason · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 15%15%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 38%38%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Foley, Jason · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 41.7%Slider: 26.6%4-Seam Fastball: 18.1%Split-Finger: 13.6% SI42% · 96 mphprimary pitch SI 42%SL 27%FF 18%FS 14% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Foley, Jason · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 42% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 95.6 mphSI96 mphSlider: 27% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.9 mphSL86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 18% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 96.1 mphFF96 mphSplit-Finger: 14% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 89.1 mphFS89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 47.0% 126 110 limited sample
SL 30.6% 82 102 limited sample
FB 22.4% 60 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.273 vs 0.251 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 50%, Sinker 22%, 4-Seam Fastball 17%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.07
K% Δ-0.081
Sample26.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.6----
Batters Faced139----
K%20.9%13.8% to 29.7%+/- 8.0%
BB%6.9%3.5% to 10.5%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%21.6%15.5% to 27.9%+/- 6.2%
HR/91.200.30 to 1.71+/- 0.71
xwOBA Against0.3000.228 to 0.334+/- 0.053
Barrel% Allowed7.2%2.3% to 9.9%+/- 3.8%
ERA3.430.94 to 5.00+/- 2.03
FIP3.632.64 to 5.18+/- 1.27
WHIP1.2720.889 to 1.537+/- 0.324
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

345 career BF

xwOBA0.273
K%17.7%
BB%6.8%
Barrel5.5%
vs RHH

546 career BF

xwOBA0.251
K%18.1%
BB%4.6%
Barrel4.6%