Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Peralta, Sammy

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.7% K%
Range
11.3% to 24.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Balanced reliever Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
32
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
31
Arsenal5 metrics
52
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.53
ERA current pace6.75
ERA rolling p505.21
Observed weight31%
ERA
3.26 4.19 5.21 6.24 7.16
FIP
2.25 3.13 4.11 5.09 5.97
K%
13.7% 16.1% 18.6% 21.2% 23.5%
BB%
4.8% 6.4% 8.3% 10.2% 11.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.73
5
ERA6.75
4
BB%6.5%
84 +35 vs proj
K%23.4%
60 +33 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.363
8 -39 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.7%
79 +16 vs proj
Fastball velo88.7
2
Hard-hit allowed41.4%
29
Whiff%16.0%
5 -23 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+101
48
Fastball Stuff+93
7
Mithrandir Stuff+103
60
Sinker Stuff+104
63
Slider Stuff+106
83
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

2 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Peralta, Sammy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.363 2026-09-26: 0.3632026-09-27: 0.363 2026-09-26 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Peralta, Sammy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 22%22%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Peralta, Sammy · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 28.1%Slider: 21.1%Sweeper: 20.1%Changeup: 15.8%4-Seam Fastball: 14.2%Cutter: 0.8% SI28% · 89 mphprimary pitch SI 28%SL 21%ST 20%CH 16%FF 14%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Peralta, Sammy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 28% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 88.8 mphSI89 mphSlider: 21% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 80.4 mphSL80 mphSweeper: 20% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 79.7 mphST80 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 83.7 mphCH84 mph4-Seam Fastball: 14% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 88.5 mphFF88 mphCutter: 1% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 83.5 mphFC84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 42.1% 102 106 limited sample
SI 26.4% 64 104 limited sample
CH 16.9% 41 101 limited sample
FB 14.5% 35 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.250 vs 0.280 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 48%, Sinker 32%, Changeup 10%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.67
K% Δ+0.047
Sample22.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings29.9----
Batters Faced141----
K%18.7%11.3% to 24.6%+/- 6.7%
BB%8.9%4.5% to 14.4%+/- 4.9%
Whiff%20.2%14.0% to 26.5%+/- 6.3%
HR/91.100.21 to 2.28+/- 1.04
xwOBA Against0.3160.238 to 0.377+/- 0.069
Barrel% Allowed6.7%3.3% to 11.2%+/- 3.9%
ERA4.081.87 to 7.01+/- 2.57
FIP4.072.27 to 7.18+/- 2.46
WHIP1.3771.131 to 1.860+/- 0.364
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

86 career BF

xwOBA0.250
K%14.1%
BB%8.3%
Barrel4.5%
vs RHH

135 career BF

xwOBA0.280
K%12.1%
BB%8.6%
Barrel6.0%