Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Abbott, Andrew

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.8% K%
Range
18.4% to 27.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Balanced starter Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
27
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
28
Arsenal6 metrics
64
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.85
ERA current pace4.61
ERA rolling p504.43
Observed weight76%
ERA
3.45 3.92 4.43 4.94 5.40
FIP
4.20 4.56 4.95 5.34 5.69
K%
17.2% 18.0% 18.9% 19.8% 20.6%
BB%
8.3% 8.9% 9.5% 10.1% 10.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.51
22
ERA4.61
34
BB%10.4%
32 -43 vs proj
K%18.1%
21 -21 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.338
24 -19 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.4%
35
Fastball velo92.4
20
Hard-hit allowed40.2%
37
Whiff%20.4%
30
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+96
17
Curveball Stuff+104
70
Fastball Stuff+103
60
Mithrandir Stuff+103
54
Slider Stuff+108
90
Cutter Stuff+106
93
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Abbott, Andrew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.338 2026-09-13: 0.3412026-09-14: 0.3412026-09-18: 0.3412026-09-19: 0.3412026-09-20: 0.3412026-09-21: 0.3412026-09-22: 0.3412026-09-23: 0.3412026-09-24: 0.3382026-09-25: 0.3382026-09-26: 0.3382026-09-27: 0.338 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Abbott, Andrew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Abbott, Andrew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.9%Sweeper: 19.4%Changeup: 19.4%Curveball: 12.9%Cutter: 3.3% FF45% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 45%ST 19%CH 19%CU 13%FC 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Abbott, Andrew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 45% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 92.4 mphFF92 mphSweeper: 19% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 82.2 mphST82 mphChangeup: 19% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 86.2 mphCH86 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 79.7 mphCU80 mphCutter: 3% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 88.9 mphFC89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 46.0% 833 103 qualified
CH 19.2% 348 96 qualified
SL 19.0% 345 108 qualified
CB 13.5% 244 104 qualified
FC 2.3% 42 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.265 vs 0.292 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 48%, Changeup 20%, Sweeper 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.54
K% Δ-0.027
Sample170.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings143.3----
Batters Faced605----
K%20.8%18.4% to 27.0%+/- 4.3%
BB%7.2%5.6% to 9.7%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%21.9%18.6% to 26.2%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.621.02 to 2.12+/- 0.55
xwOBA Against0.3180.283 to 0.337+/- 0.027
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.8% to 12.1%+/- 2.6%
ERA4.072.76 to 5.20+/- 1.22
FIP4.303.37 to 5.24+/- 0.93
WHIP1.3011.081 to 1.494+/- 0.206
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

401 career BF

xwOBA0.265
K%21.8%
BB%6.1%
Barrel6.8%
vs RHH

1355 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%19.8%
BB%7.5%
Barrel9.3%