Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Murphy, Chris

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.1% K%
Range
16.6% to 29.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
43
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
54
Arsenal6 metrics
62
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.03
ERA current pace4.81
ERA rolling p504.34
Observed weight40%
ERA
2.97 3.62 4.34 5.07 5.72
FIP
3.54 3.90 4.30 4.71 5.07
K%
18.5% 20.4% 22.6% 24.7% 26.7%
BB%
7.7% 9.1% 10.6% 12.1% 13.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.36
45
ERA4.81
30
BB%10.6%
30
K%21.9%
48
xwOBA allowed0.303
63 +19 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.8%
43
Fastball velo96.0
75
Hard-hit allowed34.3%
80
Whiff%26.2%
77 +17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+104
66
Curveball Stuff+104
79
Fastball Stuff+106
78
Mithrandir Stuff+102
44
Sinker Stuff+113
100
Slider Stuff+93
6
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Murphy, Chris · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.303 2026-09-13: 0.2922026-09-14: 0.2852026-09-18: 0.2952026-09-19: 0.3032026-09-20: 0.3032026-09-21: 0.3032026-09-22: 0.3032026-09-23: 0.3032026-09-24: 0.3032026-09-25: 0.3032026-09-26: 0.3032026-09-27: 0.303 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Murphy, Chris · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Murphy, Chris · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 33.4%Slider: 29.4%Curveball: 23.6%Sweeper: 4.8%Sinker: 3.7%Changeup: 3.4% FF33% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 33%SL 29%CU 24%ST 5%SI 4%CH 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Murphy, Chris · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 96.3 mphFF96 mphSlider: 29% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 89.3 mphSL89 mphCurveball: 24% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 78.0 mphCU78 mphSweeper: 5% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 80.4 mphST80 mphSinker: 4% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 93.7 mphSI94 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.9 mphCH86 mphSlurve: 2% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 82.8 mphSV83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 34.5% 97 93 limited sample
FB 32.0% 90 106 limited sample
CB 23.1% 65 104 limited sample
SI 6.0% 17 113 limited sample
CH 4.3% 12 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 31%, Curveball 31%, Slider 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.67
K% Δ-0.002
Sample36.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.4----
Batters Faced150----
K%22.1%16.6% to 29.2%+/- 6.3%
BB%10.0%6.9% to 15.4%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%24.0%19.8% to 29.9%+/- 5.0%
HR/91.270.55 to 2.17+/- 0.81
xwOBA Against0.3170.261 to 0.340+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed7.6%3.6% to 11.5%+/- 3.9%
ERA4.142.35 to 6.16+/- 1.91
FIP4.383.41 to 5.52+/- 1.06
WHIP1.3690.967 to 1.627+/- 0.330
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

141 career BF

xwOBA0.251
K%19.8%
BB%9.8%
Barrel5.5%
vs RHH

226 career BF

xwOBA0.270
K%18.1%
BB%10.0%
Barrel7.2%