Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026

Bieber, Shane

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.2% K%
Range
16.8% to 27.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
28
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
23
Arsenal4 metrics
60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.60
ERA current pace4.37
ERA rolling p503.99
Observed weight50%
ERA
2.80 3.36 3.99 4.61 5.18
FIP
3.95 4.24 4.57 4.90 5.19
K%
17.4% 18.8% 20.5% 22.1% 23.6%
BB%
6.0% 6.8% 7.7% 8.6% 9.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.43
32
ERA4.37
41
BB%9.9%
38 -51 vs proj
K%18.2%
23 -27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.368
6 -25 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.9%
9 -21 vs proj
Fastball velo92.3
19
Hard-hit allowed46.0%
6
Whiff%21.0%
36 -24 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+98
26
Curveball Stuff+103
54
Fastball Stuff+108
90
Mithrandir Stuff+104
69
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bieber, Shane · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.368 2026-09-13: 0.3682026-09-14: 0.3682026-09-18: 0.3682026-09-19: 0.3682026-09-20: 0.3682026-09-21: 0.3682026-09-22: 0.3682026-09-23: 0.3682026-09-24: 0.3682026-09-25: 0.3682026-09-26: 0.3682026-09-27: 0.368 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bieber, Shane · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 41%41%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bieber, Shane · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 36.6%Knuckle Curve: 18.5%Changeup: 18.4%Cutter: 12.2%Slider: 10.0%Sinker: 4.4% FF37% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 37%KC 18%CH 18%FC 12%SL 10%SI 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bieber, Shane · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 37% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 92.3 mphFF92 mphKnuckle Curve: 18% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 82.6 mphKC83 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 88.2 mphCH88 mphCutter: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 87.4 mphFC87 mphSlider: 10% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 85.3 mphSL85 mphSinker: 4% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.2 mphSI92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.8% 41 108 limited sample
CB 21.4% 18 103 limited sample
CH 14.3% 12 98 limited sample
SI 7.1% 6 93 limited sample
SL 4.8% 4 97 limited sample
FC 3.6% 3 111 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 33%, Slider 22%, Knuckle Curve 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.50
K% Δ-0.040
Sample55.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.9----
Batters Faced279----
K%22.2%16.8% to 27.4%+/- 5.3%
BB%6.0%3.7% to 8.5%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%23.9%19.9% to 28.8%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.480.79 to 2.00+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3280.276 to 0.341+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed8.7%6.2% to 11.5%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.872.06 to 5.43+/- 1.68
FIP4.022.98 to 4.74+/- 0.88
WHIP1.1440.897 to 1.450+/- 0.277
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1891 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%21.1%
BB%5.4%
Barrel7.0%
vs RHH

2045 career BF

xwOBA0.291
K%20.4%
BB%4.2%
Barrel9.3%