Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Baz, Shane

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
23.2% K%
Range
19.8% to 29.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
48
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal6 metrics
58
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.64
ERA current pace4.11
ERA rolling p504.00
Observed weight77%
ERA
3.01 3.48 4.00 4.52 5.00
FIP
3.11 3.37 3.67 3.96 4.22
K%
19.3% 20.1% 21.1% 22.0% 22.8%
BB%
6.9% 7.4% 8.0% 8.6% 9.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
49
ERA4.11
49
BB%8.0%
62
K%20.2%
36 -23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.317
45
Barrel allowed6.8%
61 +24 vs proj
Fastball velo95.7
72
Hard-hit allowed41.1%
31
Whiff%19.1%
20 -44 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Curveball Stuff+104
79
Cutter Stuff+102
58
Fastball Stuff+104
62
Mithrandir Stuff+103
62
Changeup Stuff+98
22
Sinker Stuff+104
65
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Baz, Shane · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.317 2026-09-13: 0.3132026-09-14: 0.3132026-09-18: 0.3152026-09-19: 0.3152026-09-20: 0.3152026-09-21: 0.3152026-09-22: 0.3172026-09-23: 0.3172026-09-24: 0.3172026-09-25: 0.3172026-09-26: 0.3172026-09-27: 0.317 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Baz, Shane · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Baz, Shane · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 34.1%Knuckle Curve: 32.9%Cutter: 15.0%Changeup: 9.3%Sinker: 8.7%Other: 0.0% FF34% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 34%KC 33%FC 15%CH 9%SI 9%FA 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Baz, Shane · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 34% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 95.9 mphFF96 mphKnuckle Curve: 33% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 85.3 mphKC85 mphCutter: 15% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 89.6 mphFC90 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 87.7 mphCH88 mphSinker: 9% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 95.3 mphSI95 mphOther: 0% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 79.6 mphFA80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 34.4% 621 104 qualified
CB 32.3% 584 104 qualified
FC 16.9% 306 102 qualified
CH 9.1% 165 98 limited sample
SI 7.2% 130 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Knuckle Curve 27%, Cutter 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.06
K% Δ-0.031
Sample183.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings141.7----
Batters Faced606----
K%23.2%19.8% to 29.0%+/- 4.6%
BB%8.5%6.4% to 10.7%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%24.5%20.5% to 28.5%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.341.00 to 1.96+/- 0.48
xwOBA Against0.3080.280 to 0.330+/- 0.025
Barrel% Allowed8.2%6.7% to 11.9%+/- 2.6%
ERA4.053.38 to 5.87+/- 1.24
FIP3.893.24 to 4.63+/- 0.69
WHIP1.3301.119 to 1.572+/- 0.226
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

572 career BF

xwOBA0.280
K%22.6%
BB%8.7%
Barrel7.4%
vs RHH

638 career BF

xwOBA0.289
K%21.1%
BB%7.8%
Barrel9.9%