Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Gilbert, Logan

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
26.6% K%
Range
21.9% to 33.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
76
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
65
Arsenal6 metrics
87
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.51
ERA current pace3.81
ERA rolling p503.74
Observed weight76%
ERA
2.59 3.13 3.74 4.34 4.88
FIP
3.29 3.57 3.88 4.19 4.47
K%
24.6% 25.6% 26.7% 27.9% 28.9%
BB%
5.2% 5.7% 6.3% 6.8% 7.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.12
83
ERA3.81
59
BB%6.5%
85
K%26.5%
79
xwOBA allowed0.297
72
Barrel allowed10.1%
14 -19 vs proj
Fastball velo96.3
79
Hard-hit allowed41.2%
30
Whiff%27.8%
86
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+108
91
Mithrandir Stuff+106
83
Slider Stuff+104
72
Changeup Stuff+108
91
Curveball Stuff+106
96
Cutter Stuff+106
92
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gilbert, Logan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.297 2026-09-13: 0.2952026-09-14: 0.2952026-09-18: 0.2942026-09-19: 0.2942026-09-20: 0.2942026-09-21: 0.2942026-09-22: 0.2942026-09-23: 0.2972026-09-24: 0.2972026-09-25: 0.2972026-09-26: 0.2972026-09-27: 0.297 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gilbert, Logan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gilbert, Logan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 40.2%Slider: 25.0%Split-Finger: 14.9%Changeup: 7.2%Sweeper: 7.1%Cutter: 5.1% FF40% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 40%SL 25%FS 15%CH 7%ST 7%FC 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gilbert, Logan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 40% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 96.4 mphFF96 mphSlider: 25% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 86.8 mphSL87 mphSplit-Finger: 15% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 81.9 mphFS82 mphChangeup: 7% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.8 mphCH86 mphSweeper: 7% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 81.2 mphST81 mphCutter: 5% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 91.2 mphFC91 mphSinker: 0% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 93.0 mphSI93 mphCurveball: 0% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 76.5 mphCU76 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.0% 673 108 qualified
SL 30.0% 458 104 qualified
CH 9.5% 146 108 limited sample
FC 8.5% 130 106 limited sample
CB 7.7% 117 106 limited sample
SI 0.3% 5 89 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 36%, Slider 35%, Split-Finger 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.34
K% Δ-0.001
Sample178.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings79.0----
Batters Faced318----
K%26.6%21.9% to 33.6%+/- 5.9%
BB%5.8%3.6% to 8.0%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%26.6%24.1% to 32.2%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.271.04 to 2.09+/- 0.53
xwOBA Against0.2870.256 to 0.312+/- 0.028
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.4% to 11.8%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.472.31 to 5.20+/- 1.44
FIP3.482.69 to 4.18+/- 0.74
WHIP1.0230.848 to 1.358+/- 0.255
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1706 career BF

xwOBA0.270
K%27.4%
BB%5.2%
Barrel8.4%
vs RHH

1921 career BF

xwOBA0.271
K%25.5%
BB%4.6%
Barrel8.5%