Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Lee, Dylan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
27.5% K%
Range
21.0% to 35.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Balanced reliever Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
89
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
83
Arsenal4 metrics
69
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.48
ERA current pace3.14
ERA rolling p503.30
Observed weight53%
ERA
1.80 2.51 3.30 4.09 4.80
FIP
2.15 2.54 2.97 3.40 3.79
K%
25.2% 27.1% 29.2% 31.2% 33.1%
BB%
4.7% 5.6% 6.6% 7.6% 8.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.97
95
ERA3.14
79
BB%6.4%
87
K%29.6%
91
xwOBA allowed0.252
96 +22 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.3%
83 +50 vs proj
Fastball velo93.3
30
Hard-hit allowed32.7%
88
Whiff%32.7%
98
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+107
86
Mithrandir Stuff+104
72
Slider Stuff+103
62
Changeup Stuff+103
55
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 52%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lee, Dylan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.252 2026-09-13: 0.2442026-09-14: 0.2492026-09-18: 0.2492026-09-19: 0.2492026-09-20: 0.2492026-09-21: 0.2532026-09-22: 0.2532026-09-23: 0.2532026-09-24: 0.2522026-09-25: 0.2522026-09-26: 0.2522026-09-27: 0.252 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lee, Dylan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 33%33%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lee, Dylan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 52.1%4-Seam Fastball: 31.9%Changeup: 16.0% SL52% · 83 mphprimary pitch SL 52%FF 32%CH 16% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lee, Dylan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 52% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 82.9 mphSL83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 32% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 93.3 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 85.5 mphCH85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 52.9% 341 103 qualified
FB 31.2% 201 107 qualified
CH 16.0% 103 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.250 vs 0.273 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 56%, 4-Seam Fastball 31%, Changeup 13%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.19
K% Δ+0.020
Sample68.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.7----
Batters Faced155----
K%27.5%21.0% to 35.7%+/- 7.3%
BB%6.9%3.8% to 10.7%+/- 3.4%
Whiff%30.0%25.7% to 36.3%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.330.68 to 2.54+/- 0.93
xwOBA Against0.2940.233 to 0.340+/- 0.053
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.3% to 14.4%+/- 4.5%
ERA3.331.68 to 5.92+/- 2.12
FIP3.622.64 to 4.96+/- 1.16
WHIP1.0840.863 to 1.524+/- 0.330
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

351 career BF

xwOBA0.250
K%29.9%
BB%4.8%
Barrel8.9%
vs RHH

554 career BF

xwOBA0.273
K%25.6%
BB%6.1%
Barrel11.1%