Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026

Kuhnel, Joel

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.0% K%
Range
7.6% to 25.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team SF Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
23
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
32
Arsenal7 metrics
25
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason3.52
ERA current pace4.50
ERA rolling p503.99
Observed weight48%
ERA
2.27 3.08 3.99 4.89 5.71
FIP
3.25 3.73 4.27 4.81 5.30
K%
10.9% 13.2% 15.7% 18.2% 20.5%
BB%
4.4% 5.6% 6.9% 8.2% 9.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.55
16
ERA4.50
37
BB%8.7%
51 -36 vs proj
K%12.8%
2 -47 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.362
8 -70 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.4%
51
Fastball velo95.2
63
Hard-hit allowed40.5%
34
Whiff%20.2%
28 -31 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-29
Mithrandir Stuff+100
27
Sinker Stuff+97
19
Changeup Stuff+97
20
Curveball Stuff+103
56
Cutter Stuff+99
28
Fastball Stuff+94
10
Slider Stuff+96
14
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 52%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kuhnel, Joel · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.362 2026-09-18: 0.3662026-09-19: 0.3662026-09-20: 0.3662026-09-21: 0.3702026-09-22: 0.3702026-09-23: 0.3702026-09-24: 0.3692026-09-25: 0.3692026-09-26: 0.3652026-09-27: 0.3652026-09-28: 0.3622026-09-29: 0.362 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kuhnel, Joel · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kuhnel, Joel · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 52.1%Cutter: 29.7%4-Seam Fastball: 7.1%Changeup: 5.6%Curveball: 3.7%Slider: 1.7% SI52% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 52%FC 30%FF 7%CH 6%CU 4%SL 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kuhnel, Joel · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 52% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 95.2 mphSI95 mphCutter: 30% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 90.4 mphFC90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 7% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 95.4 mphFF95 mphChangeup: 6% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 90.2 mphCH90 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 83.2 mphCU83 mphSlider: 2% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.7 mphSL87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 53.3% 269 97 qualified
FC 24.6% 124 99 limited sample
CH 6.9% 35 97 limited sample
FB 6.5% 33 94 limited sample
SL 5.5% 28 96 limited sample
CB 3.2% 16 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 40%, Curveball 30%, Slider 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.73
K% Δ-0.092
Sample47.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings28.5----
Batters Faced121----
K%22.0%7.6% to 25.3%+/- 8.8%
BB%6.3%0.8% to 9.1%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%23.9%13.8% to 28.3%+/- 7.2%
HR/91.440.30 to 2.13+/- 0.92
xwOBA Against0.2880.174 to 0.368+/- 0.097
Barrel% Allowed6.8%1.7% to 9.9%+/- 4.1%
ERA3.771.13 to 5.99+/- 2.43
FIP3.792.15 to 5.04+/- 1.45
WHIP1.2400.667 to 1.664+/- 0.498
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

193 career BF

xwOBA0.205
K%10.1%
BB%2.9%
Barrel4.2%
vs RHH

267 career BF

xwOBA0.195
K%10.9%
BB%2.2%
Barrel4.0%