Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Hurt, Kyle

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.6% K%
Range
7.9% to 25.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
55
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
60
Arsenal4 metrics
71
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason2.92
ERA current pace4.14
ERA rolling p503.48
Observed weight46%
ERA
1.87 2.63 3.48 4.33 5.10
FIP
1.51 2.42 3.43 4.45 5.36
K%
19.0% 21.4% 24.1% 26.7% 29.1%
BB%
5.9% 7.0% 8.4% 9.7% 10.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.33
51
ERA4.14
48
BB%11.8%
20 -41 vs proj
K%28.4%
88 +35 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.299
69 +38 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.5%
48
Fastball velo96.6
82
Hard-hit allowed40.0%
38
Whiff%31.4%
95 +56 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-29
Fastball Stuff+103
59
Mithrandir Stuff+104
72
Changeup Stuff+109
93
Slider Stuff+103
58
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 56%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hurt, Kyle · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.299 2026-09-18: 0.3022026-09-19: 0.3022026-09-20: 0.3022026-09-21: 0.3022026-09-22: 0.3022026-09-23: 0.2992026-09-24: 0.2992026-09-25: 0.2992026-09-26: 0.2992026-09-27: 0.2992026-09-28: 0.2992026-09-29: 0.299 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hurt, Kyle · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 31%31%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hurt, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 55.7%Changeup: 35.0%Slider: 9.3% FF56% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 56%CH 35%SL 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hurt, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 56% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 96.6 mphFF97 mphChangeup: 35% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 88.7 mphCH89 mphSlider: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 88.0 mphSL88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 55.6% 290 103 qualified
CH 36.4% 190 109 limited sample
SL 8.0% 42 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.58
K% Δ+0.059
Sample46.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings62.0----
Batters Faced263----
K%22.6%7.9% to 25.4%+/- 8.8%
BB%8.1%0.7% to 8.6%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%21.3%11.2% to 30.2%+/- 9.5%
HR/91.440.05 to 1.30+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.3280.128 to 0.383+/- 0.127
Barrel% Allowed8.0%0.8% to 9.8%+/- 4.5%
ERA3.560.27 to 4.83+/- 2.28
FIP4.310.39 to 5.81+/- 2.71
WHIP1.2710.441 to 1.611+/- 0.585
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

19 career BF

xwOBA0.134
K%9.8%
BB%1.2%
Barrel2.7%
vs RHH

19 career BF

xwOBA0.127
K%10.6%
BB%0.9%
Barrel2.7%