Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

May, Dustin

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
20.4% K%
Range
16.7% to 26.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
48
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal7 metrics
74
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.12
ERA current pace4.67
ERA rolling p504.52
Observed weight73%
ERA
3.34 3.90 4.52 5.14 5.71
FIP
2.87 3.27 3.71 4.15 4.55
K%
20.5% 21.5% 22.6% 23.7% 24.6%
BB%
6.9% 7.5% 8.1% 8.7% 9.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
50
ERA4.67
33
BB%7.9%
63
K%22.8%
56 +19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.323
37
Barrel allowed7.5%
49
Fastball velo96.8
84
Hard-hit allowed44.8%
10
Whiff%21.1%
37 +22 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Cutter Stuff+105
85
Fastball Stuff+106
81
Mithrandir Stuff+107
91
Sinker Stuff+108
90
Slider Stuff+106
82
Changeup Stuff+103
60
Curveball Stuff+101
32
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 25%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed May, Dustin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.323 2026-09-13: 0.3172026-09-14: 0.3172026-09-18: 0.3172026-09-19: 0.3222026-09-20: 0.3222026-09-21: 0.3222026-09-22: 0.3222026-09-23: 0.3242026-09-24: 0.3242026-09-25: 0.3242026-09-26: 0.3242026-09-27: 0.323 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile May, Dustin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal May, Dustin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 24.5%Cutter: 23.4%Sinker: 20.2%Sweeper: 17.9%Curveball: 7.6%Changeup: 6.2% FF25% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 25%FC 23%SI 20%ST 18%CU 8%CH 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal May, Dustin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.9 mphFF97 mphCutter: 23% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.3 mphFC93 mphSinker: 20% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 96.6 mphSI97 mphSweeper: 18% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 86.0 mphST86 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 83.6 mphCU84 mphChangeup: 6% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 90.3 mphCH90 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 95.7 mphPO96 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 24.2% 355 105 qualified
FB 23.8% 349 106 qualified
SI 21.2% 311 108 qualified
SL 17.3% 254 106 qualified
CB 8.2% 120 101 limited sample
CH 5.4% 80 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 39%, Sinker 34%, 4-Seam Fastball 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.41
K% Δ+0.024
Sample147.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings71.6----
Batters Faced313----
K%20.4%16.7% to 26.8%+/- 5.0%
BB%8.6%6.3% to 11.6%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%18.5%15.0% to 23.3%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.320.63 to 1.95+/- 0.66
xwOBA Against0.3180.280 to 0.375+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed8.2%6.0% to 11.9%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.353.14 to 6.19+/- 1.52
FIP4.373.20 to 5.35+/- 1.08
WHIP1.3751.082 to 1.590+/- 0.254
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

813 career BF

xwOBA0.311
K%19.2%
BB%10.1%
Barrel8.7%
vs RHH

764 career BF

xwOBA0.295
K%17.8%
BB%6.5%
Barrel7.8%