Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Hall, Dl

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.0% K%
Range
16.4% to 26.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
71
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
73
Arsenal6 metrics
53
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.10
ERA current pace1.96
ERA rolling p503.00
Observed weight52%
ERA
1.94 2.44 3.00 3.55 4.05
FIP
2.98 3.41 3.89 4.37 4.80
K%
21.2% 22.7% 24.3% 25.9% 27.4%
BB%
9.2% 10.1% 11.1% 12.1% 13.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.07
88
ERA1.96
96
BB%13.3%
9 -35 vs proj
K%26.7%
80 +37 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.285
81 +36 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.1%
72 +28 vs proj
Fastball velo95.3
65
Hard-hit allowed32.7%
89
Whiff%26.1%
75 +31 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Mithrandir Stuff+102
50
Sinker Stuff+99
28
Changeup Stuff+103
56
Curveball Stuff+106
96
Fastball Stuff+96
17
Slider Stuff+104
70
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hall, Dl · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.285 2026-09-13: 0.2722026-09-14: 0.2712026-09-18: 0.2752026-09-19: 0.2742026-09-20: 0.2742026-09-21: 0.2792026-09-22: 0.2792026-09-23: 0.2792026-09-24: 0.2852026-09-25: 0.2852026-09-26: 0.2852026-09-27: 0.285 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hall, Dl · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hall, Dl · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 35.7%Curveball: 16.6%Changeup: 16.3%4-Seam Fastball: 11.6%Slider: 10.0%Sweeper: 7.9% SI36% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 36%CU 17%CH 16%FF 12%SL 10%ST 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hall, Dl · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 36% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 95.4 mphSI95 mphCurveball: 17% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 81.8 mphCU82 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 85.1 mphCH85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 95.0 mphFF95 mphSlider: 10% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 87.7 mphSL88 mphSweeper: 8% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 84.7 mphST85 mphCutter: 2% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 91.2 mphFC91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 35.7% 317 99 qualified
SL 18.9% 168 104 limited sample
CB 16.3% 145 106 limited sample
CH 15.4% 137 103 limited sample
FB 12.6% 112 96 limited sample
FC 0.9% 8 92 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 30%, Slider 19%, Cutter 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.14
K% Δ+0.057
Sample63.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.7----
Batters Faced276----
K%21.0%16.4% to 26.5%+/- 5.0%
BB%9.4%7.1% to 12.4%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%21.7%17.9% to 26.5%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.220.46 to 1.74+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3170.259 to 0.333+/- 0.037
Barrel% Allowed7.8%5.4% to 10.7%+/- 2.6%
ERA4.102.68 to 5.66+/- 1.49
FIP3.972.95 to 5.52+/- 1.29
WHIP1.3181.042 to 1.555+/- 0.256
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

193 career BF

xwOBA0.266
K%20.4%
BB%9.1%
Barrel6.5%
vs RHH

377 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%19.0%
BB%9.3%
Barrel7.2%