Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Miller, Erik

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.4% K%
Range
20.0% to 34.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
63
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
75
Arsenal5 metrics
34
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.68
ERA current pace2.98
ERA rolling p503.33
Observed weight49%
ERA
1.69 2.47 3.33 4.20 4.98
FIP
2.30 2.81 3.37 3.94 4.44
K%
24.8% 26.7% 28.9% 31.0% 32.9%
BB%
10.3% 11.7% 13.2% 14.7% 16.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.35
47
ERA2.98
83
BB%14.5%
5
K%31.9%
96 +23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.275
86 +42 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.9%
75 +21 vs proj
Fastball velo96.8
85
Hard-hit allowed29.7%
97
Whiff%33.1%
98
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Mithrandir Stuff+103
56
Sinker Stuff+103
57
Slider Stuff+102
49
Changeup Stuff+86
2
Fastball Stuff+90
4
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Miller, Erik · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.275 2026-09-13: 0.2572026-09-14: 0.2642026-09-18: 0.2752026-09-19: 0.2742026-09-20: 0.2742026-09-21: 0.2742026-09-22: 0.2742026-09-23: 0.2752026-09-24: 0.2752026-09-25: 0.2752026-09-26: 0.2752026-09-27: 0.275 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Miller, Erik · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 41%41%Whiff: 33%33%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 30%30% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Miller, Erik · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 48.8%Slider: 40.7%4-Seam Fastball: 6.8%Changeup: 3.6% SI49% · 97 mphprimary pitch SI 49%SL 41%FF 7%CH 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Miller, Erik · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 49% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 96.8 mphSI97 mphSlider: 41% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.6 mphSL86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 7% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.8 mphFF97 mphChangeup: 4% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 87.7 mphCH88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 51.4% 312 103 qualified
SL 37.7% 229 102 qualified
FB 5.8% 35 90 limited sample
CH 5.1% 31 86 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.251 vs 0.277 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 35%, Changeup 25%, Slider 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.93
K% Δ+0.065
Sample53.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.9----
Batters Faced152----
K%25.4%20.0% to 34.1%+/- 7.1%
BB%11.7%7.0% to 16.8%+/- 4.9%
Whiff%29.2%23.2% to 36.0%+/- 6.4%
HR/90.960.01 to 1.59+/- 0.79
xwOBA Against0.3180.227 to 0.352+/- 0.063
Barrel% Allowed7.2%2.4% to 10.6%+/- 4.1%
ERA3.910.69 to 5.35+/- 2.33
FIP3.511.95 to 4.98+/- 1.51
WHIP1.4021.000 to 1.728+/- 0.364
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

170 career BF

xwOBA0.251
K%26.7%
BB%11.8%
Barrel3.5%
vs RHH

272 career BF

xwOBA0.277
K%22.7%
BB%12.5%
Barrel6.4%