Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Rolison, Ryan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.8% K%
Range
9.5% to 22.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
52
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal5 metrics
59
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.08
ERA current pace3.14
ERA rolling p503.59
Observed weight52%
ERA
1.89 2.69 3.59 4.49 5.29
FIP
3.18 3.72 4.31 4.90 5.44
K%
15.7% 17.3% 19.2% 21.1% 22.7%
BB%
8.2% 9.1% 10.2% 11.3% 12.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.32
53
ERA3.14
79
BB%10.8%
28 -21 vs proj
K%21.2%
44 +29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.309
54
Barrel allowed7.0%
58 +23 vs proj
Fastball velo94.8
55
Hard-hit allowed38.4%
50
Whiff%17.7%
11
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+98
21
Mithrandir Stuff+102
53
Curveball Stuff+103
69
Sinker Stuff+105
74
Slider Stuff+106
81
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rolison, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.309 2026-09-13: 0.3112026-09-14: 0.3112026-09-18: 0.3162026-09-19: 0.3162026-09-20: 0.3162026-09-21: 0.3142026-09-22: 0.3142026-09-23: 0.3102026-09-24: 0.3072026-09-25: 0.3072026-09-26: 0.3092026-09-27: 0.309 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rolison, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rolison, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.8%Curveball: 16.4%Sweeper: 15.6%Sinker: 14.8%Slider: 12.5%Changeup: 0.9% FF40% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 40%CU 16%ST 16%SI 15%SL 13%CH 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rolison, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 40% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 94.7 mphFF95 mphCurveball: 16% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 57″ drop, 79.5 mphCU79 mphSweeper: 16% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.1 mphST85 mphSinker: 15% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 95.0 mphSI95 mphSlider: 13% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 86.8 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 1% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 88.9 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 39.2% 250 98 qualified
SL 28.2% 180 106 limited sample
CB 16.8% 107 103 limited sample
SI 14.6% 93 105 limited sample
CH 1.3% 8 113 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.275 vs 0.311 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Curveball 33%, Slider 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.43
K% Δ+0.044
Sample61.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.0----
Batters Faced305----
K%16.8%9.5% to 22.4%+/- 6.5%
BB%9.1%6.6% to 13.0%+/- 3.2%
Whiff%19.5%14.5% to 24.3%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.370.60 to 2.53+/- 0.96
xwOBA Against0.3140.262 to 0.334+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.3% to 11.0%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.571.82 to 6.63+/- 2.41
FIP4.793.30 to 6.49+/- 1.60
WHIP1.4911.119 to 1.882+/- 0.382
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

105 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%11.3%
BB%8.9%
Barrel5.7%
vs RHH

146 career BF

xwOBA0.311
K%10.8%
BB%8.8%
Barrel8.3%