Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Myers, Tobias

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.6% K%
Range
17.5% to 25.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
40
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
37
Arsenal4 metrics
50
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.90
ERA current pace5.64
ERA rolling p504.78
Observed weight51%
ERA
3.88 4.31 4.78 5.26 5.68
FIP
4.03 4.27 4.54 4.81 5.05
K%
17.3% 18.5% 19.9% 21.2% 22.5%
BB%
5.7% 6.4% 7.2% 8.1% 8.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
42
ERA5.64
15
BB%7.8%
67
K%18.8%
28
xwOBA allowed0.313
49 +21 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.1%
85 +52 vs proj
Fastball velo92.5
21
Hard-hit allowed44.6%
11
Whiff%19.0%
19
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+110
95
Mithrandir Stuff+105
74
Cutter Stuff+98
19
Slider Stuff+96
13
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Myers, Tobias · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.313 2026-09-13: 0.3212026-09-14: 0.3212026-09-18: 0.3202026-09-19: 0.3202026-09-20: 0.3202026-09-21: 0.3172026-09-22: 0.3172026-09-23: 0.3172026-09-24: 0.3172026-09-25: 0.3172026-09-26: 0.3172026-09-27: 0.313 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Myers, Tobias · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Myers, Tobias · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 46.2%Split-Finger: 25.2%Slider: 14.5%Cutter: 12.2%Sweeper: 1.2%Curveball: 0.7% FF46% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 46%FS 25%SL 15%FC 12%ST 1%CU 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Myers, Tobias · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 46% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 92.5 mphFF93 mphSplit-Finger: 25% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 80.1 mphFS80 mphSlider: 15% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 82.1 mphSL82 mphCutter: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 86.7 mphFC87 mphSweeper: 1% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 79.7 mphST80 mphCurveball: 1% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 62″ drop, 72.4 mphCU72 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 64.1% 302 110 qualified
FC 18.3% 86 98 limited sample
SL 17.2% 81 96 limited sample
CB 0.4% 2 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 45%, Cutter 20%, Slider 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.18
K% Δ-0.018
Sample56.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings72.5----
Batters Faced315----
K%20.6%17.5% to 25.8%+/- 4.1%
BB%7.2%4.9% to 9.5%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%19.3%17.3% to 24.5%+/- 3.6%
HR/91.320.89 to 2.04+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.3340.292 to 0.360+/- 0.034
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.7% to 11.1%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.462.61 to 5.16+/- 1.28
FIP4.193.37 to 4.80+/- 0.72
WHIP1.3301.096 to 1.593+/- 0.248
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

402 career BF

xwOBA0.314
K%18.3%
BB%7.6%
Barrel6.8%
vs RHH

456 career BF

xwOBA0.306
K%20.9%
BB%5.4%
Barrel8.5%