Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026

Gallen, Zac

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
21.1% K%
Range
18.3% to 27.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
19
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
17
Arsenal6 metrics
53
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.35
ERA current pace6.07
ERA rolling p505.51
Observed weight67%
ERA
4.55 5.00 5.51 6.01 6.47
FIP
4.58 4.87 5.18 5.49 5.77
K%
14.0% 14.9% 16.0% 17.1% 18.1%
BB%
6.3% 6.9% 7.5% 8.2% 8.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.61
12
ERA6.07
10
BB%7.5%
70
K%13.0%
2 -41 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.384
2 -29 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.3%
6 -26 vs proj
Fastball velo93.3
30
Hard-hit allowed44.6%
12
Whiff%17.7%
11 -25 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Curveball Stuff+102
45
Fastball Stuff+105
76
Mithrandir Stuff+103
57
Slider Stuff+103
56
Changeup Stuff+103
61
Sinker Stuff+98
20
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gallen, Zac · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.384 2026-09-13: 0.3902026-09-14: 0.3902026-09-18: 0.3902026-09-19: 0.3852026-09-20: 0.3852026-09-21: 0.3852026-09-22: 0.3852026-09-23: 0.3852026-09-24: 0.3852026-09-25: 0.3852026-09-26: 0.3842026-09-27: 0.384 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gallen, Zac · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gallen, Zac · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 35.4%Slider: 22.5%Knuckle Curve: 19.0%Changeup: 17.2%Sinker: 5.8%Pitch Out: 0.1% FF35% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 35%SL 23%KC 19%CH 17%SI 6%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gallen, Zac · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 35% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.4 mphFF93 mphSlider: 23% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 88.9 mphSL89 mphKnuckle Curve: 19% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 51″ drop, 81.6 mphKC82 mphChangeup: 17% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.6 mphCH87 mphSinker: 6% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 92.7 mphSI93 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 89.4 mphPO89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 35.3% 472 105 qualified
SL 25.2% 337 103 qualified
CB 19.1% 256 102 qualified
CH 14.1% 188 103 limited sample
SI 6.3% 84 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 45%, Knuckle Curve 23%, Changeup 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.86
K% Δ-0.082
Sample108.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings145.8----
Batters Faced615----
K%21.1%18.3% to 27.9%+/- 4.8%
BB%7.9%5.9% to 10.0%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%21.0%18.9% to 26.5%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.350.85 to 1.91+/- 0.53
xwOBA Against0.3280.285 to 0.337+/- 0.026
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.8% to 12.0%+/- 2.6%
ERA4.213.33 to 5.90+/- 1.28
FIP4.202.96 to 4.55+/- 0.79
WHIP1.3411.076 to 1.522+/- 0.223
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2180 career BF

xwOBA0.304
K%20.5%
BB%8.0%
Barrel8.3%
vs RHH

2279 career BF

xwOBA0.306
K%22.2%
BB%7.1%
Barrel9.4%