Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIN · 2026

Kremer, Dean

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.9% K%
Range
18.0% to 26.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIN Archetype Balanced starter Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
50
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal6 metrics
25
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.65
ERA current pace4.97
ERA rolling p504.84
Observed weight60%
ERA
3.85 4.32 4.84 5.37 5.84
FIP
3.96 4.25 4.58 4.91 5.20
K%
21.0% 22.2% 23.5% 24.7% 25.9%
BB%
6.9% 7.6% 8.3% 9.1% 9.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.21
70
ERA4.97
26
BB%8.9%
50 -20 vs proj
K%25.0%
70 +28 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.324
36
Barrel allowed10.6%
10 -18 vs proj
Fastball velo92.4
20
Hard-hit allowed36.4%
66
Whiff%26.7%
80 +46 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+105
69
Mithrandir Stuff+100
27
Curveball Stuff+101
30
Cutter Stuff+94
5
Sinker Stuff+97
20
Slider Stuff+87
1
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kremer, Dean · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.324 2026-09-13: 0.3292026-09-14: 0.3292026-09-18: 0.3272026-09-19: 0.3272026-09-20: 0.3272026-09-21: 0.3242026-09-22: 0.3242026-09-23: 0.3242026-09-24: 0.3242026-09-25: 0.3242026-09-26: 0.3242026-09-27: 0.324 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kremer, Dean · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kremer, Dean · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 29.0%Split-Finger: 25.9%Cutter: 17.6%Sinker: 13.7%Curveball: 12.5%Slider: 1.2% FF29% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 29%FS 26%FC 18%SI 14%CU 12%SL 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kremer, Dean · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 29% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 92.6 mphFF93 mphSplit-Finger: 26% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 82.3 mphFS82 mphCutter: 18% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.0 mphFC87 mphSinker: 14% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 91.9 mphSI92 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 76.7 mphCU77 mphSlider: 1% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 83.3 mphSL83 mphUnknown: 0% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 72.2 mphUN72 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 42.5% 239 105 qualified
FC 22.2% 125 94 limited sample
SI 17.2% 97 97 limited sample
CB 15.6% 88 101 limited sample
SL 2.5% 14 87 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.318 vs 0.297 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 27%, Split-Finger 21%, Cutter 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.74
K% Δ+0.041
Sample86.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings77.3----
Batters Faced327----
K%20.9%18.0% to 26.3%+/- 4.2%
BB%7.5%5.7% to 10.1%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%20.8%18.7% to 25.5%+/- 3.4%
HR/91.460.93 to 2.05+/- 0.56
xwOBA Against0.3280.287 to 0.361+/- 0.037
Barrel% Allowed8.8%5.7% to 12.5%+/- 3.4%
ERA4.233.39 to 6.15+/- 1.38
FIP4.303.38 to 5.09+/- 0.86
WHIP1.2831.086 to 1.526+/- 0.220
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1426 career BF

xwOBA0.318
K%19.1%
BB%8.1%
Barrel10.5%
vs RHH

1618 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%20.4%
BB%6.3%
Barrel8.5%