Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

Javier, Cristian

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.7% K%
Range
17.2% to 27.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Balanced reliever Age 29 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
34
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
43
Arsenal7 metrics
41
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.11
ERA current pace5.14
ERA rolling p504.69
Observed weight56%
ERA
3.67 4.16 4.69 5.23 5.71
FIP
3.65 4.06 4.52 4.98 5.40
K%
18.7% 20.0% 21.4% 22.8% 24.1%
BB%
8.2% 8.9% 9.8% 10.7% 11.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.40
36
ERA5.14
24
BB%10.0%
38
K%21.2%
44
xwOBA allowed0.333
28
Barrel allowed9.0%
27
Fastball velo93.0
27
Hard-hit allowed33.5%
85
Whiff%27.2%
83 +29 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+100
33
Mithrandir Stuff+101
37
Changeup Stuff+106
79
Curveball Stuff+96
1
Cutter Stuff+105
87
Sinker Stuff+91
5
Slider Stuff+101
45
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Javier, Cristian · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.333 2026-09-13: 0.3322026-09-14: 0.3322026-09-18: 0.3322026-09-19: 0.3322026-09-20: 0.3322026-09-21: 0.3322026-09-22: 0.3322026-09-23: 0.3342026-09-24: 0.3342026-09-25: 0.3342026-09-26: 0.3332026-09-27: 0.333 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Javier, Cristian · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Javier, Cristian · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 46.4%Sweeper: 26.8%Changeup: 16.3%Cutter: 7.0%Sinker: 1.7%Knuckle Curve: 1.4% FF46% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 46%ST 27%CH 16%FC 7%SI 2%KC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Javier, Cristian · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 46% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.0 mphFF93 mphSweeper: 27% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 81.0 mphST81 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 85.2 mphCH85 mphCutter: 7% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.0 mphFC89 mphSinker: 2% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 92.7 mphSI93 mphKnuckle Curve: 1% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 77.4 mphKC77 mphSlider: 0% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 84.7 mphSL85 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.2 mphPO93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 45.9% 282 100 qualified
SL 27.5% 169 101 limited sample
CH 17.2% 106 106 limited sample
FC 5.5% 34 105 limited sample
CB 2.0% 12 96 limited sample
SI 2.0% 12 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 40%, Sweeper 20%, Changeup 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.00
K% Δ-0.005
Sample72.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.4----
Batters Faced293----
K%21.7%17.2% to 27.0%+/- 4.9%
BB%9.7%7.7% to 12.8%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%23.1%19.6% to 28.3%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.370.84 to 2.00+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.3250.284 to 0.352+/- 0.034
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.9% to 11.6%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.133.34 to 6.20+/- 1.43
FIP4.383.33 to 5.78+/- 1.22
WHIP1.2641.073 to 1.620+/- 0.274
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1287 career BF

xwOBA0.311
K%18.2%
BB%11.1%
Barrel8.1%
vs RHH

1197 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%21.1%
BB%8.8%
Barrel8.6%