Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026

Clarke, Taylor

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.2% K%
Range
15.6% to 29.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Balanced reliever Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
64
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
58
Arsenal6 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason4.15
ERA current pace2.86
ERA rolling p503.43
Observed weight55%
ERA
1.88 2.62 3.43 4.25 4.98
FIP
3.38 3.74 4.14 4.54 4.90
K%
15.3% 16.9% 18.7% 20.4% 22.0%
BB%
3.6% 4.5% 5.4% 6.4% 7.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.01
93
ERA2.86
85
BB%4.7%
97
K%15.7%
10 -41 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.322
37
Barrel allowed9.4%
20 -17 vs proj
Fastball velo95.2
64
Hard-hit allowed35.2%
75
Whiff%21.2%
38
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-29
Mithrandir Stuff+103
64
Slider Stuff+103
65
Changeup Stuff+107
85
Cutter Stuff+100
36
Fastball Stuff+101
41
Sinker Stuff+103
53
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Clarke, Taylor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.322 2026-09-18: 0.3152026-09-19: 0.3182026-09-20: 0.3182026-09-21: 0.3202026-09-22: 0.3202026-09-23: 0.3202026-09-24: 0.3202026-09-25: 0.3202026-09-26: 0.3222026-09-27: 0.3222026-09-28: 0.3222026-09-29: 0.322 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Clarke, Taylor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Clarke, Taylor · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 29.7%Changeup: 27.0%Sinker: 23.2%Cutter: 18.5%4-Seam Fastball: 1.5%Pitch Out: 0.1% SL30% · 88 mphprimary pitch SL 30%CH 27%SI 23%FC 19%FF 1%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Clarke, Taylor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Slider: 30% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 88.4 mphSL88 mphChangeup: 27% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 90.2 mphCH90 mphSinker: 23% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 95.3 mphSI95 mphCutter: 19% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 94.3 mphFC94 mph4-Seam Fastball: 1% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.5 mphFF95 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 92.9 mphPO93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 29.5% 212 103 qualified
CH 27.2% 195 107 limited sample
SI 22.1% 159 103 limited sample
FC 19.2% 138 100 limited sample
FB 1.9% 14 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.286 vs 0.265 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 39%, 4-Seam Fastball 22%, Changeup 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.35
K% Δ-0.064
Sample74.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.6----
Batters Faced142----
K%22.2%15.6% to 29.0%+/- 6.7%
BB%6.2%3.3% to 10.6%+/- 3.7%
Whiff%22.9%18.4% to 27.6%+/- 4.6%
HR/91.230.83 to 2.45+/- 0.81
xwOBA Against0.3140.261 to 0.361+/- 0.050
Barrel% Allowed8.2%3.9% to 12.8%+/- 4.4%
ERA4.212.23 to 6.59+/- 2.18
FIP4.033.05 to 5.19+/- 1.07
WHIP1.2110.850 to 1.517+/- 0.334
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

702 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%19.0%
BB%5.4%
Barrel9.2%
vs RHH

814 career BF

xwOBA0.265
K%20.3%
BB%4.2%
Barrel8.2%