Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026

Brubaker, Jt

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.4% K%
Range
14.4% to 25.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team SF Archetype Volatile contact Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
38
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
44
Arsenal6 metrics
31
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason3.81
ERA current pace3.58
ERA rolling p503.69
Observed weight52%
ERA
2.45 3.04 3.69 4.34 4.93
FIP
3.11 3.55 4.03 4.51 4.95
K%
14.6% 16.0% 17.7% 19.3% 20.8%
BB%
7.6% 8.5% 9.4% 10.4% 11.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.26
63
ERA3.58
68
BB%10.8%
28 -25 vs proj
K%15.8%
10 -21 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.341
21 -25 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.3%
82 +42 vs proj
Fastball velo93.6
36
Hard-hit allowed35.3%
75
Whiff%18.3%
15
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-29
Mithrandir Stuff+100
29
Sinker Stuff+98
25
Changeup Stuff+102
51
Curveball Stuff+102
40
Fastball Stuff+88
2
Slider Stuff+100
35
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Brubaker, Jt · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.341 2026-09-18: 0.3412026-09-19: 0.3412026-09-20: 0.3412026-09-21: 0.3412026-09-22: 0.3412026-09-23: 0.3412026-09-24: 0.3412026-09-25: 0.3412026-09-26: 0.3412026-09-27: 0.3412026-09-28: 0.3412026-09-29: 0.341 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Brubaker, Jt · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Brubaker, Jt · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 45.1%Slider: 26.3%Changeup: 13.9%Curveball: 8.7%4-Seam Fastball: 6.1% SI45% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 45%SL 26%CH 14%CU 9%FF 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Brubaker, Jt · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 45% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.7 mphSI94 mphSlider: 26% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.1 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 88.6 mphCH89 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 81.9 mphCU82 mph4-Seam Fastball: 6% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 93.1 mphFF93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 46.5% 322 98 qualified
SL 28.2% 195 100 limited sample
CH 11.8% 82 102 limited sample
CB 8.2% 57 102 limited sample
FB 5.2% 36 88 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 49%, Slider 24%, Changeup 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.41
K% Δ-0.036
Sample61.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings61.6----
Batters Faced257----
K%19.4%14.4% to 25.8%+/- 5.7%
BB%8.6%5.9% to 11.3%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%19.7%16.5% to 25.4%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.100.04 to 1.27+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3160.234 to 0.342+/- 0.054
Barrel% Allowed7.9%3.9% to 10.0%+/- 3.1%
ERA3.992.04 to 5.56+/- 1.76
FIP3.852.19 to 4.79+/- 1.30
WHIP1.2850.916 to 1.571+/- 0.328
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

780 career BF

xwOBA0.226
K%15.6%
BB%8.1%
Barrel5.4%
vs RHH

835 career BF

xwOBA0.211
K%17.2%
BB%6.1%
Barrel5.1%