Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Sandoval, Patrick

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
20.9% K%
Range
15.7% to 24.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
30
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
42
Arsenal6 metrics
48
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason3.93
ERA current pace5.07
ERA rolling p504.58
Observed weight57%
ERA
3.46 3.99 4.58 5.17 5.70
FIP
2.83 3.29 3.80 4.31 4.77
K%
19.2% 20.5% 21.8% 23.2% 24.4%
BB%
7.6% 8.4% 9.2% 10.1% 10.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.71
6
ERA5.07
25
BB%10.0%
37
K%22.7%
56
xwOBA allowed0.336
25
Barrel allowed6.5%
66
Fastball velo93.6
36
Hard-hit allowed34.6%
79
Whiff%21.8%
44
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-29
Changeup Stuff+104
64
Mithrandir Stuff+101
41
Curveball Stuff+102
50
Fastball Stuff+104
68
Sinker Stuff+92
6
Slider Stuff+103
58
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sandoval, Patrick · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.336 2026-09-18: 0.3502026-09-19: 0.3502026-09-20: 0.3502026-09-21: 0.3422026-09-22: 0.3422026-09-23: 0.3422026-09-24: 0.3422026-09-25: 0.3422026-09-26: 0.3392026-09-27: 0.3392026-09-28: 0.3362026-09-29: 0.336 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sandoval, Patrick · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sandoval, Patrick · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 28.1%4-Seam Fastball: 25.3%Slider: 20.5%Sinker: 17.0%Sweeper: 5.2%Curveball: 3.9% CH28% · 83 mphprimary pitch CH 28%FF 25%SL 21%SI 17%ST 5%CU 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sandoval, Patrick · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Changeup: 28% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 83.2 mphCH83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.4 mphFF93 mphSlider: 21% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.7 mphSL87 mphSinker: 17% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.9 mphSI94 mphSweeper: 5% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 80.5 mphST80 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 75.6 mphCU76 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 31.4% 228 104 qualified
FB 25.3% 184 104 limited sample
SL 23.0% 167 103 limited sample
SI 15.6% 113 92 limited sample
CB 4.7% 34 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.264 vs 0.289 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.16
K% Δ+0.018
Sample69.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings139.5----
Batters Faced621----
K%20.9%15.7% to 24.8%+/- 4.5%
BB%9.2%6.6% to 11.8%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%23.4%20.1% to 28.1%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.270.54 to 1.71+/- 0.59
xwOBA Against0.3300.273 to 0.353+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed7.3%4.2% to 10.0%+/- 2.9%
ERA3.912.86 to 5.98+/- 1.56
FIP4.092.98 to 5.69+/- 1.36
WHIP1.3721.131 to 1.724+/- 0.297
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

552 career BF

xwOBA0.264
K%18.9%
BB%8.8%
Barrel5.2%
vs RHH

1884 career BF

xwOBA0.289
K%17.1%
BB%9.5%
Barrel6.3%