Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Martin, Davis

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.9% K%
Range
14.9% to 24.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Balanced starter Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
47
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
43
Arsenal7 metrics
60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.05
ERA current pace3.84
ERA rolling p503.90
Observed weight73%
ERA
2.77 3.31 3.90 4.49 5.02
FIP
3.11 3.49 3.92 4.34 4.73
K%
17.7% 18.6% 19.7% 20.7% 21.6%
BB%
6.6% 7.2% 7.8% 8.4% 9.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.33
51
ERA3.84
58
BB%7.8%
65
K%19.6%
33
xwOBA allowed0.331
30
Barrel allowed6.5%
66 +34 vs proj
Fastball velo93.4
32
Hard-hit allowed45.1%
9
Whiff%21.4%
41
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+103
57
Fastball Stuff+101
43
Mithrandir Stuff+103
59
Sinker Stuff+105
72
Curveball Stuff+104
71
Cutter Stuff+106
94
Slider Stuff+99
28
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Martin, Davis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.331 2026-09-13: 0.3322026-09-14: 0.3322026-09-18: 0.3302026-09-19: 0.3302026-09-20: 0.3302026-09-21: 0.3302026-09-22: 0.3302026-09-23: 0.3302026-09-24: 0.3302026-09-25: 0.3302026-09-26: 0.3302026-09-27: 0.331 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Martin, Davis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 43%43%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Martin, Davis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 26.6%Sinker: 18.6%Changeup: 14.6%Curveball: 14.2%Cutter: 12.9%Slider: 12.8% FF27% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 27%SI 19%CH 15%CU 14%FC 13%SL 13% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Martin, Davis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 6″12″18″24″ 4-Seam Fastball: 27% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 1″ drop, 93.9 mphFF94 mphSinker: 19% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 2″ drop, 92.8 mphSI93 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 3″ drop, 90.1 mphCH90 mphCurveball: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 4″ drop, 81.7 mphCU82 mphCutter: 13% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 2″ drop, 89.7 mphFC90 mphSlider: 13% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 3″ drop, 87.1 mphSL87 mphSweeper: 0% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 3″ drop, 88.2 mphST88 mphUnknown: 0% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 39.3 mphUN39 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 25.9% 321 101 qualified
SI 17.2% 213 105 qualified
CH 16.4% 204 103 qualified
SL 14.3% 177 99 limited sample
CB 13.4% 166 104 limited sample
FC 12.9% 160 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.322 vs 0.286 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 32%, Changeup 24%, Slider 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.89
K% Δ+0.017
Sample149.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings70.6----
Batters Faced304----
K%17.9%14.9% to 24.1%+/- 4.6%
BB%8.0%5.7% to 10.4%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%20.6%17.8% to 25.3%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.510.88 to 2.07+/- 0.59
xwOBA Against0.3450.279 to 0.365+/- 0.043
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.3% to 11.9%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.732.96 to 5.85+/- 1.45
FIP4.613.36 to 5.44+/- 1.04
WHIP1.3921.065 to 1.585+/- 0.260
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

581 career BF

xwOBA0.322
K%15.3%
BB%8.5%
Barrel8.6%
vs RHH

563 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%17.5%
BB%6.5%
Barrel8.8%