Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Ohtani, Shohei

Bat-missing starter with frontline strikeout shape

Primary
27.8% K%
Range
22.2% to 35.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
98
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
90
Pitching7 metrics
88
Speed3 metrics
54
Plate skills15 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.27
ERA current pace1.79
ERA rolling p502.37
Observed weight61%
ERA
1.31 1.81 2.37 2.93 3.43
FIP
2.04 2.39 2.78 3.17 3.52
K%
25.6% 27.1% 28.8% 30.5% 32.0%
BB%
6.2% 6.9% 7.6% 8.4% 9.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.0%
98
Exit velocity93.3
98
Hard-hit%52.4%
97
xBA0.405
99
xSLG0.782
98
xwOBA0.397
99
BB%13.1%
92
Bat speed73.0
89
K%24.9%
39
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.0%
62
Barrel allowed3.5%
96 +39 vs proj
Fastball velo97.8
93
Hard-hit allowed33.0%
87
K%29.4%
90
Whiff%29.5%
92
xwOBA allowed0.257
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.1 · DH
66
SB Success Rate76.9% · DH
40
Sprint Speed27.7 · DH
56
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.3% · rebadged research
60
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5% · rebadged research
84
Correct Decisions67.4% · rebadged research
63
Fastball Stuff+108
89
Mithrandir Stuff+106
88
Resists FastballwOBA 0.325 · validated
77
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
77
Slider Stuff+111
98
Curveball Stuff+99
12
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.308 · borderline
18
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · insufficient sample
90
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.334 · validated thin sample
1
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.362 · insufficient sample
4
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.407 · validated
2
Sinker Stuff+82
0
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Ohtani, Shohei · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.302 0.397 2026-09-13: 0.3992026-09-14: 0.3992026-09-18: 0.3992026-09-19: 0.3992026-09-20: 0.3992026-09-21: 0.3992026-09-22: 0.3992026-09-23: 0.3992026-09-24: 0.4002026-09-25: 0.4002026-09-26: 0.4002026-09-27: 0.397 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Ohtani, Shohei · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 45%45%Chase: 29%29%Whiff: 29%29%Zone contact: 80%80%Contact: 71%71%Hard hit: 52%52% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ohtani, Shohei · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.0%Sweeper: 28.3%Curveball: 10.6%Split-Finger: 9.2%Sinker: 6.3%Slider: 1.0% FF44% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 44%ST 28%CU 11%FS 9%SI 6%SL 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ohtani, Shohei · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 98.0 mphFF98 mphSweeper: 28% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.9 mphST85 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 64″ drop, 75.3 mphCU75 mphSplit-Finger: 9% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.6 mphFS89 mphSinker: 6% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 96.2 mphSI96 mphSlider: 1% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 88.0 mphSL88 mphCutter: 1% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 92.4 mphFC92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.6% 413 108 qualified
SL 34.0% 289 111 qualified
CB 10.7% 91 99 limited sample
SI 5.6% 48 82 limited sample
FC 1.1% 9 86 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 40%, Sweeper 21%, Slider 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.54
K% Δ+0.016
Sample93.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings137.6----
Batters Faced561----
K%27.8%22.2% to 35.5%+/- 6.7%
BB%7.2%5.2% to 9.8%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%26.8%21.8% to 31.1%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.210.64 to 1.77+/- 0.56
xwOBA Against0.2710.241 to 0.316+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed7.0%3.7% to 9.4%+/- 2.8%
ERA3.331.91 to 4.84+/- 1.46
FIP3.102.08 to 4.13+/- 1.02
WHIP0.9980.817 to 1.385+/- 0.284
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1099 career BF

xwOBA0.237
K%27.7%
BB%6.9%
Barrel5.7%
vs RHH

1187 career BF

xwOBA0.234
K%25.5%
BB%6.0%
Barrel5.6%