Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026

Ginkel, Kevin

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
24.9% K%
Range
18.1% to 33.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
73
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
65
Arsenal4 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.77
ERA current pace4.18
ERA rolling p503.99
Observed weight54%
ERA
2.57 3.24 3.99 4.74 5.42
FIP
2.14 2.78 3.48 4.18 4.81
K%
21.8% 23.7% 25.8% 27.9% 29.8%
BB%
5.2% 6.1% 7.1% 8.1% 9.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.14
80
ERA4.18
47
BB%5.9%
90 +39 vs proj
K%25.8%
75
xwOBA allowed0.293
74
Barrel allowed9.3%
21 -21 vs proj
Fastball velo95.6
70
Hard-hit allowed39.9%
40
Whiff%28.1%
88 +21 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+105
68
Mithrandir Stuff+104
67
Slider Stuff+102
53
Sinker Stuff+96
16
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ginkel, Kevin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.293 2026-09-13: 0.2952026-09-14: 0.2952026-09-18: 0.2922026-09-19: 0.2922026-09-20: 0.2922026-09-21: 0.2972026-09-22: 0.2972026-09-23: 0.2972026-09-24: 0.2972026-09-25: 0.2972026-09-26: 0.2942026-09-27: 0.293 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ginkel, Kevin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ginkel, Kevin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 47.9%4-Seam Fastball: 46.3%Sinker: 5.4%Split-Finger: 0.4% SL48% · 86 mphprimary pitch SL 48%FF 46%SI 5%FS 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ginkel, Kevin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 48% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 85.7 mphSL86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 46% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.7 mphFF96 mphSinker: 5% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 95.1 mphSI95 mphSplit-Finger: 0% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.9 mphFS86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 49.4% 309 102 qualified
FB 46.6% 292 105 qualified
SI 4.0% 25 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Slider 43%, Sinker 7%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.45
K% Δ+0.009
Sample69.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings36.9----
Batters Faced155----
K%24.9%18.1% to 33.8%+/- 7.8%
BB%8.7%5.0% to 12.2%+/- 3.6%
Whiff%24.9%20.1% to 32.6%+/- 6.2%
HR/91.060.31 to 1.66+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.3030.236 to 0.361+/- 0.063
Barrel% Allowed7.9%3.5% to 11.8%+/- 4.2%
ERA3.732.40 to 6.41+/- 2.00
FIP3.322.02 to 5.77+/- 1.88
WHIP1.2590.998 to 1.645+/- 0.324
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

500 career BF

xwOBA0.280
K%25.1%
BB%8.2%
Barrel8.3%
vs RHH

706 career BF

xwOBA0.270
K%23.2%
BB%6.7%
Barrel7.1%