Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Duarte, Daniel

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.5% K%
Range
12.1% to 25.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Volatile contact Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
91
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
77
Arsenal6 metrics
62
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason3.63
ERA current pace2.12
ERA rolling p503.14
Observed weight33%
ERA
1.40 2.22 3.14 4.05 4.87
FIP
2.35 2.90 3.51 4.11 4.66
K%
16.6% 18.9% 21.5% 24.0% 26.3%
BB%
4.7% 5.8% 7.1% 8.3% 9.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.79
99
ERA2.12
95
BB%6.0%
88 +34 vs proj
K%26.7%
80 +27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.263
92 +19 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.6%
65 +29 vs proj
Fastball velo94.2
46
Hard-hit allowed23.7%
100
Whiff%19.4%
23 -33 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-29
Changeup Stuff+104
71
Cutter Stuff+104
73
Fastball Stuff+103
60
Mithrandir Stuff+104
68
Sinker Stuff+104
66
Slider Stuff+100
35
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Duarte, Daniel · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.263 2026-09-18: 0.2632026-09-19: 0.2632026-09-20: 0.2632026-09-21: 0.2632026-09-22: 0.2632026-09-23: 0.2632026-09-24: 0.2632026-09-25: 0.2632026-09-26: 0.2632026-09-27: 0.2632026-09-28: 0.2632026-09-29: 0.263 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Duarte, Daniel · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 24%24% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Duarte, Daniel · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 33.0%Sweeper: 26.0%4-Seam Fastball: 15.5%Sinker: 14.9%Changeup: 10.4%Curveball: 0.2% FC33% · 90 mphprimary pitch FC 33%ST 26%FF 16%SI 15%CH 10%CU 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Duarte, Daniel · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 33% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 89.9 mphFC90 mphSweeper: 26% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 81.5 mphST82 mph4-Seam Fastball: 16% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.0 mphFF95 mphSinker: 15% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.3 mphSI93 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 88.4 mphCH88 mphCurveball: 0% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 77.2 mphCU77 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 32.9% 96 104 limited sample
SL 24.7% 72 100 limited sample
SI 16.8% 49 104 limited sample
FB 15.4% 45 103 limited sample
CH 10.3% 30 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projection leans on stable run prevention more than one extreme carrying pitch trait.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.63
K% Δ+0.042
Sample30.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings62.1----
Batters Faced258----
K%22.5%12.1% to 25.6%+/- 6.7%
BB%8.5%4.8% to 11.4%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%23.3%15.4% to 27.2%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.690.62 to 2.14+/- 0.76
xwOBA Against0.2960.186 to 0.356+/- 0.085
Barrel% Allowed8.3%2.7% to 10.0%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.750.96 to 5.60+/- 2.32
FIP4.382.74 to 5.81+/- 1.54
WHIP1.1250.676 to 1.600+/- 0.462
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

90 career BF

xwOBA0.183
K%13.6%
BB%7.2%
Barrel4.0%
vs RHH

118 career BF

xwOBA0.174
K%14.7%
BB%5.4%
Barrel3.9%