Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

King, Michael

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
23.9% K%
Range
21.0% to 31.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
54
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
52
Arsenal5 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.42
ERA current pace3.21
ERA rolling p503.26
Observed weight77%
ERA
2.24 2.72 3.26 3.80 4.28
FIP
3.51 3.80 4.11 4.43 4.71
K%
20.0% 20.9% 21.9% 22.9% 23.7%
BB%
7.7% 8.2% 8.8% 9.4% 9.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.23
67
ERA3.21
78
BB%9.2%
47 -16 vs proj
K%20.7%
40 -24 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.322
38
Barrel allowed8.5%
33
Fastball velo93.6
37
Hard-hit allowed34.0%
82
Whiff%21.8%
44 -21 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+102
52
Fastball Stuff+102
49
Mithrandir Stuff+103
56
Sinker Stuff+105
70
Slider Stuff+101
42
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed King, Michael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.322 2026-09-13: 0.3232026-09-14: 0.3232026-09-18: 0.3212026-09-19: 0.3212026-09-20: 0.3212026-09-21: 0.3212026-09-22: 0.3212026-09-23: 0.3222026-09-24: 0.3222026-09-25: 0.3222026-09-26: 0.3222026-09-27: 0.322 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile King, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal King, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 28.3%Changeup: 26.3%4-Seam Fastball: 20.2%Sweeper: 18.8%Slider: 6.5% SI28% · 93 mphprimary pitch SI 28%CH 26%FF 20%ST 19%SL 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal King, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 28% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 93.2 mphSI93 mphChangeup: 26% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.5 mphCH86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 20% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 94.2 mphFF94 mphSweeper: 19% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 82.0 mphST82 mphSlider: 7% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.5 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 27.7% 539 105 qualified
SL 26.9% 524 101 qualified
CH 24.6% 478 102 qualified
FB 20.9% 406 102 qualified
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 30%, 4-Seam Fastball 25%, Changeup 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.40
K% Δ-0.032
Sample186.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings73.5----
Batters Faced309----
K%23.9%21.0% to 31.1%+/- 5.1%
BB%8.0%5.8% to 10.4%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%24.7%21.8% to 29.2%+/- 3.7%
HR/91.240.89 to 1.99+/- 0.55
xwOBA Against0.3160.271 to 0.338+/- 0.034
Barrel% Allowed8.2%6.2% to 11.4%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.612.32 to 4.88+/- 1.28
FIP3.802.81 to 4.31+/- 0.75
WHIP1.2341.017 to 1.428+/- 0.206
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1066 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%23.7%
BB%8.6%
Barrel8.2%
vs RHH

1221 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%25.5%
BB%6.6%
Barrel8.1%