Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 29 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Alcantara, Sandy

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.1% K%
Range
15.9% to 25.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Balanced starter Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
58
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
60
Arsenal7 metrics
66
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-29
ERA preseason4.75
ERA current pace3.89
ERA rolling p504.07
Observed weight80%
ERA
2.70 3.35 4.07 4.78 5.43
FIP
3.10 3.54 4.03 4.52 4.96
K%
16.5% 17.2% 18.1% 18.9% 19.6%
BB%
5.7% 6.1% 6.6% 7.1% 7.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-29
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.25
65
ERA3.89
56
BB%6.4%
86
K%17.5%
17
xwOBA allowed0.301
66 +42 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.5%
81 +50 vs proj
Fastball velo97.3
90
Hard-hit allowed36.5%
65
Whiff%18.6%
15
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-29
Changeup Stuff+107
85
Cutter Stuff+101
42
Fastball Stuff+105
71
Mithrandir Stuff+106
86
Sinker Stuff+111
98
Slider Stuff+102
55
Curveball Stuff+101
26
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Alcantara, Sandy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.301 2026-09-18: 0.3052026-09-19: 0.3052026-09-20: 0.3052026-09-21: 0.3022026-09-22: 0.3022026-09-23: 0.3022026-09-24: 0.3022026-09-25: 0.3022026-09-26: 0.3022026-09-27: 0.3022026-09-28: 0.3012026-09-29: 0.301 2026-09-18 2026-09-29 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Alcantara, Sandy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alcantara, Sandy · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 26.2%Changeup: 20.4%4-Seam Fastball: 18.2%Cutter: 14.8%Sweeper: 8.9%Slider: 7.4% SI26% · 97 mphprimary pitch SI 26%CH 20%FF 18%FC 15%ST 9%SL 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alcantara, Sandy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 26% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 97.3 mphSI97 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 90.8 mphCH91 mph4-Seam Fastball: 18% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 97.4 mphFF97 mphCutter: 15% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.9 mphFC90 mphSweeper: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 84.1 mphST84 mphSlider: 7% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.9 mphSL85 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 82.8 mphCU83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 25.2% 569 111 qualified
CH 21.9% 495 107 qualified
SL 21.5% 487 102 qualified
FB 17.8% 402 105 qualified
FC 10.8% 244 101 qualified
CB 2.9% 65 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.320 vs 0.298 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 26%, Changeup 23%, 4-Seam Fastball 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.02
K% Δ-0.005
Sample218.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings144.3----
Batters Faced608----
K%18.1%15.9% to 25.2%+/- 4.6%
BB%7.4%5.6% to 10.0%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%18.8%17.4% to 25.3%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.270.81 to 2.04+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3390.300 to 0.368+/- 0.034
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.1% to 11.7%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.913.67 to 6.99+/- 1.66
FIP4.203.29 to 5.55+/- 1.13
WHIP1.2901.076 to 1.567+/- 0.246
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2398 career BF

xwOBA0.320
K%16.0%
BB%8.6%
Barrel8.3%
vs RHH

2206 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%19.3%
BB%5.1%
Barrel8.2%