Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Manaea, Sean

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.5% K%
Range
20.1% to 29.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Volatile contact Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
51
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
37
Arsenal6 metrics
36
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.07
ERA current pace4.67
ERA rolling p504.51
Observed weight73%
ERA
3.43 3.94 4.51 5.07 5.58
FIP
3.42 3.71 4.03 4.36 4.65
K%
21.1% 22.0% 23.1% 24.2% 25.1%
BB%
5.8% 6.4% 6.9% 7.5% 8.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.28
59
ERA4.67
33
BB%6.7%
82
K%22.6%
53
xwOBA allowed0.335
27
Barrel allowed11.1%
7 -25 vs proj
Fastball velo90.9
7
Hard-hit allowed41.9%
25
Whiff%21.0%
35 -20 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+101
39
Mithrandir Stuff+101
37
Sinker Stuff+105
72
Slider Stuff+97
17
Changeup Stuff+98
26
Cutter Stuff+99
25
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Manaea, Sean · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.335 2026-09-13: 0.3402026-09-14: 0.3402026-09-18: 0.3372026-09-19: 0.3372026-09-20: 0.3372026-09-21: 0.3372026-09-22: 0.3372026-09-23: 0.3352026-09-24: 0.3352026-09-25: 0.3352026-09-26: 0.3352026-09-27: 0.335 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Manaea, Sean · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Manaea, Sean · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 38.7%Sweeper: 30.7%Sinker: 18.5%Cutter: 7.8%Changeup: 4.4% FF39% · 91 mphprimary pitch FF 39%ST 31%SI 18%FC 8%CH 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Manaea, Sean · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 39% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 91.2 mphFF91 mphSweeper: 31% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 75.7 mphST76 mphSinker: 18% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 90.3 mphSI90 mphCutter: 8% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 84.6 mphFC85 mphChangeup: 4% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 84.0 mphCH84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 38.1% 604 101 qualified
SL 30.1% 477 97 qualified
SI 19.1% 303 105 qualified
FC 7.7% 122 99 limited sample
CH 4.9% 78 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 61%, Sweeper 34%, Changeup 6%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.51
K% Δ-0.009
Sample147.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings73.3----
Batters Faced309----
K%23.5%20.1% to 29.7%+/- 4.8%
BB%7.4%5.3% to 9.9%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%23.2%19.2% to 27.2%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.260.87 to 1.94+/- 0.53
xwOBA Against0.3190.281 to 0.336+/- 0.028
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.2% to 11.2%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.162.98 to 5.74+/- 1.38
FIP3.932.93 to 4.52+/- 0.80
WHIP1.2040.971 to 1.420+/- 0.225
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1315 career BF

xwOBA0.276
K%24.6%
BB%5.7%
Barrel7.0%
vs RHH

4211 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%23.0%
BB%7.1%
Barrel8.3%