Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

Hader, Josh

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
31.7% K%
Range
26.2% to 40.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Balanced reliever Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
89
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
85
Arsenal3 metrics
46
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.35
ERA current pace1.01
ERA rolling p502.39
Observed weight41%
ERA
0.86 1.59 2.39 3.19 3.92
FIP
0.84 1.81 2.88 3.95 4.92
K%
28.6% 30.8% 33.3% 35.7% 38.0%
BB%
6.3% 7.8% 9.4% 11.0% 12.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.77
99
ERA1.01
100
BB%9.0%
49 +17 vs proj
K%32.9%
97
xwOBA allowed0.215
100
Barrel allowed6.2%
71 +46 vs proj
Fastball velo95.1
61
Hard-hit allowed32.0%
91
Whiff%32.1%
97
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Sinker Stuff+102
45
Mithrandir Stuff+103
62
Slider Stuff+99
29
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

2Pitches 2026Season 64%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hader, Josh · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.215 2026-09-13: 0.2032026-09-14: 0.2032026-09-18: 0.2002026-09-19: 0.2002026-09-20: 0.2002026-09-21: 0.2002026-09-22: 0.2002026-09-23: 0.2002026-09-24: 0.2152026-09-25: 0.2152026-09-26: 0.2152026-09-27: 0.215 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hader, Josh · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 32%32%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 62%62%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hader, Josh · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 64.3%Slider: 35.7% SI64% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 64%SL 36% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hader, Josh · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 64% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 95.1 mphSI95 mphSlider: 36% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 84.5 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 65.9% 203 102 qualified
SL 34.1% 105 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 55%, Slider 41%, Changeup 5%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.51
K% Δ+0.013
Sample44.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.0----
Batters Faced157----
K%31.7%26.2% to 40.8%+/- 7.3%
BB%10.4%5.0% to 14.6%+/- 4.8%
Whiff%34.5%29.4% to 40.5%+/- 5.6%
HR/91.160.37 to 2.38+/- 1.01
xwOBA Against0.2720.179 to 0.335+/- 0.078
Barrel% Allowed9.0%4.0% to 13.5%+/- 4.8%
ERA3.521.20 to 5.45+/- 2.13
FIP3.362.01 to 7.69+/- 2.84
WHIP1.1700.817 to 1.506+/- 0.345
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

559 career BF

xwOBA0.224
K%31.5%
BB%8.8%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

1625 career BF

xwOBA0.242
K%32.5%
BB%9.7%
Barrel9.8%