Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Buehler, Walker

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.9% K%
Range
13.3% to 23.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Volatile contact Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
41
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
39
Arsenal7 metrics
32
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.56
ERA current pace4.56
ERA rolling p504.56
Observed weight74%
ERA
3.30 3.89 4.56 5.23 5.83
FIP
3.84 4.25 4.70 5.15 5.56
K%
17.8% 18.7% 19.7% 20.7% 21.7%
BB%
7.4% 8.0% 8.6% 9.2% 9.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.41
35
ERA4.56
36
BB%8.6%
53
K%20.3%
36 +22 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.317
45 +17 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.3%
36
Fastball velo94.1
44
Hard-hit allowed38.7%
48
Whiff%18.6%
16
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Cutter Stuff+101
42
Fastball Stuff+102
50
Mithrandir Stuff+100
34
Sinker Stuff+102
44
Slider Stuff+99
26
Changeup Stuff+93
10
Curveball Stuff+100
20
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 24%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Buehler, Walker · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.317 2026-09-13: 0.3142026-09-14: 0.3142026-09-18: 0.3182026-09-19: 0.3182026-09-20: 0.3182026-09-21: 0.3152026-09-22: 0.3152026-09-23: 0.3152026-09-24: 0.3152026-09-25: 0.3152026-09-26: 0.3152026-09-27: 0.317 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Buehler, Walker · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Buehler, Walker · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 23.9%4-Seam Fastball: 20.4%Sinker: 19.0%Slider: 10.5%Changeup: 10.1%Knuckle Curve: 8.8% FC24% · 90 mphprimary pitch FC 24%FF 20%SI 19%SL 10%CH 10%KC 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Buehler, Walker · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 24% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 90.4 mphFC90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.9 mphFF94 mphSinker: 19% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 94.2 mphSI94 mphSlider: 10% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.1 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 89.1 mphCH89 mphKnuckle Curve: 9% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 78.0 mphKC78 mphSweeper: 7% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 82.4 mphST82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 24.6% 412 101 qualified
FB 20.1% 336 102 qualified
SI 19.1% 320 102 qualified
SL 16.8% 281 99 qualified
CB 9.9% 165 100 limited sample
CH 9.6% 160 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 25%, Cutter 17%, Sinker 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.36
K% Δ+0.034
Sample159.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings72.1----
Batters Faced324----
K%16.9%13.3% to 23.2%+/- 4.9%
BB%8.7%6.5% to 11.5%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%18.2%15.9% to 23.7%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.570.85 to 2.31+/- 0.73
xwOBA Against0.3330.288 to 0.359+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.7%6.2% to 11.7%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.923.12 to 6.34+/- 1.61
FIP4.963.77 to 5.96+/- 1.09
WHIP1.3951.146 to 1.659+/- 0.256
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2039 career BF

xwOBA0.324
K%14.7%
BB%9.5%
Barrel8.1%
vs RHH

1929 career BF

xwOBA0.307
K%16.3%
BB%7.9%
Barrel8.6%