Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Suter, Brent

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.4% K%
Range
13.0% to 23.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 37 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
61
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal5 metrics
33
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.41
ERA current pace3.48
ERA rolling p503.83
Observed weight62%
ERA
2.64 3.21 3.83 4.46 5.02
FIP
3.30 3.66 4.07 4.47 4.83
K%
17.2% 18.5% 19.8% 21.1% 22.3%
BB%
5.3% 6.0% 6.7% 7.5% 8.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.28
59
ERA3.48
70
BB%7.1%
75
K%20.9%
42 +30 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.306
59 +23 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.2%
54
Fastball velo88.5
2
Hard-hit allowed32.0%
90
Whiff%21.4%
40 +30 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+97
20
Fastball Stuff+101
45
Mithrandir Stuff+100
32
Sinker Stuff+102
46
Slider Stuff+98
21
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Suter, Brent · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.306 2026-09-13: 0.3092026-09-14: 0.3092026-09-18: 0.3082026-09-19: 0.3082026-09-20: 0.3082026-09-21: 0.3082026-09-22: 0.3082026-09-23: 0.3082026-09-24: 0.3072026-09-25: 0.3072026-09-26: 0.3072026-09-27: 0.306 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Suter, Brent · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Suter, Brent · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 34.4%Changeup: 26.9%4-Seam Fastball: 25.8%Slider: 12.9% SI34% · 89 mphprimary pitch SI 34%CH 27%FF 26%SL 13% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Suter, Brent · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 34% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 89.0 mphSI89 mphChangeup: 27% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 76.6 mphCH77 mph4-Seam Fastball: 26% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 87.7 mphFF88 mphSlider: 13% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 78.0 mphSL78 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 32.9% 313 102 qualified
CH 27.4% 261 97 qualified
FB 26.8% 255 101 qualified
SL 12.8% 122 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 43%, Sinker 23%, Changeup 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.98
K% Δ+0.045
Sample92.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.7----
Batters Faced297----
K%16.4%13.0% to 23.3%+/- 5.2%
BB%6.2%3.7% to 9.0%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%17.4%15.3% to 23.6%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.440.79 to 1.96+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.3230.275 to 0.358+/- 0.042
Barrel% Allowed7.4%4.5% to 9.5%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.463.07 to 6.34+/- 1.63
FIP4.613.08 to 5.18+/- 1.05
WHIP1.3401.095 to 1.685+/- 0.295
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

835 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%17.0%
BB%4.9%
Barrel6.2%
vs RHH

1766 career BF

xwOBA0.306
K%16.4%
BB%5.7%
Barrel6.2%