Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 28 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Glasnow, Tyler

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
27.0% K%
Range
23.0% to 35.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
83
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
74
Arsenal5 metrics
66
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-28
ERA preseason3.36
ERA current pace3.53
ERA rolling p503.46
Observed weight57%
ERA
2.46 2.93 3.46 3.99 4.46
FIP
2.05 2.50 3.00 3.49 3.94
K%
29.2% 30.8% 32.5% 34.2% 35.8%
BB%
7.0% 7.7% 8.5% 9.3% 10.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-28
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.95
95
ERA3.53
69
BB%8.3%
57
K%35.5%
99 +18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.263
93
Barrel allowed8.3%
36
Fastball velo95.6
69
Hard-hit allowed38.7%
48
Whiff%31.9%
97 +19 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-28
Curveball Stuff+101
35
Fastball Stuff+109
93
Mithrandir Stuff+105
80
Sinker Stuff+101
38
Slider Stuff+107
86
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Glasnow, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.263 2026-09-14: 0.2742026-09-18: 0.2742026-09-19: 0.2662026-09-20: 0.2662026-09-21: 0.2662026-09-22: 0.2662026-09-23: 0.2662026-09-24: 0.2662026-09-25: 0.2662026-09-26: 0.2632026-09-27: 0.2632026-09-28: 0.263 2026-09-14 2026-09-28 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Glasnow, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 32%32%Called strike: 20%20%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Glasnow, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 34.8%Knuckle Curve: 22.7%Sinker: 19.9%Slider: 17.8%Curveball: 4.8% FF35% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 35%KC 23%SI 20%SL 18%CU 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Glasnow, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 35% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.5 mphFF95 mphKnuckle Curve: 23% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 80.7 mphKC81 mphSinker: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 95.8 mphSI96 mphSlider: 18% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 89.8 mphSL90 mphCurveball: 5% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 83.8 mphCU84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 34.4% 333 109 qualified
CB 27.0% 262 101 qualified
SI 21.3% 206 101 qualified
SL 17.3% 168 107 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 34%, Curveball 23%, Slider 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.22
K% Δ+0.085
Sample82.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings72.8----
Batters Faced294----
K%27.0%23.0% to 35.5%+/- 6.3%
BB%9.0%6.6% to 11.6%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%26.3%23.3% to 32.0%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.170.68 to 1.94+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.2880.256 to 0.326+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.3% to 11.7%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.312.31 to 5.11+/- 1.40
FIP3.382.55 to 5.19+/- 1.32
WHIP1.0990.884 to 1.376+/- 0.246
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1674 career BF

xwOBA0.267
K%27.9%
BB%9.1%
Barrel8.2%
vs RHH

1788 career BF

xwOBA0.264
K%26.9%
BB%8.5%
Barrel8.6%