Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Snell, Blake

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
28.5% K%
Range
23.2% to 35.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
84
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
88
Arsenal5 metrics
73
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.32
ERA current pace1.86
ERA rolling p502.70
Observed weight42%
ERA
1.70 2.18 2.70 3.23 3.71
FIP
1.98 2.30 2.65 3.01 3.32
K%
25.7% 27.6% 29.8% 32.0% 33.9%
BB%
7.5% 8.5% 9.6% 10.6% 11.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.13
82
ERA1.86
97
BB%9.1%
47
K%31.4%
96
xwOBA allowed0.228
99 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed2.0%
99 +48 vs proj
Fastball velo96.0
75
Hard-hit allowed15.7%
100
Whiff%31.8%
96
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+108
87
Mithrandir Stuff+106
85
Changeup Stuff+110
96
Curveball Stuff+103
65
Slider Stuff+100
33
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Snell, Blake · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.228 2026-09-13: 0.2252026-09-14: 0.2252026-09-18: 0.2282026-09-19: 0.2282026-09-20: 0.2282026-09-21: 0.2282026-09-22: 0.2282026-09-23: 0.2282026-09-24: 0.2282026-09-25: 0.2282026-09-26: 0.2282026-09-27: 0.228 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Snell, Blake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 43%43%Zone: 41%41%Whiff: 32%32%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 62%62%Hard hit allowed: 16%16% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Snell, Blake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 49.5%Curveball: 21.9%Changeup: 17.8%Slider: 10.8% FF50% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 50%CU 22%CH 18%SL 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Snell, Blake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 50% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 96.0 mphFF96 mphCurveball: 22% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 79.9 mphCU80 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 84.8 mphCH85 mphSlider: 11% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 88.8 mphSL89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.8% 315 108 qualified
CB 21.9% 141 103 limited sample
CH 18.0% 116 110 limited sample
SL 11.3% 73 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 39%, Changeup 26%, Curveball 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.55
K% Δ+0.029
Sample41.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings72.5----
Batters Faced302----
K%28.5%23.2% to 35.9%+/- 6.3%
BB%10.1%7.1% to 12.9%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%29.3%27.9% to 36.7%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.130.32 to 1.68+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.2880.230 to 0.327+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed7.4%4.1% to 9.6%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.411.75 to 4.55+/- 1.40
FIP3.361.90 to 3.78+/- 0.94
WHIP1.1920.924 to 1.506+/- 0.291
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1002 career BF

xwOBA0.251
K%28.2%
BB%10.8%
Barrel6.0%
vs RHH

4249 career BF

xwOBA0.262
K%27.6%
BB%10.0%
Barrel5.8%